Consolidation of core voters, not Muslim vote to benefit Mahagathbandhan in western UP

If the BJP’s sweep in 2014, in the three neighbouring constituencies of Moradabad, Sambhal and Rampur, where 48-52 per cent of the electorate is Muslim did not point to the phenomenon of fragmentation in the minority vote, the massive popular response to a young poet who debuted in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections on a Congress ticket from Moradabad confirms that the “Muslim vote monolith” is a bit of a myth.

Imran Pratapgarhi, the Congress’ fresh-faced candidate from Moradabad, is a popular poet. An outsider to this massive constituency with about 19 lakh voters, Pratapgarhi’s campaign was mainly run by friends and a handful of idealists from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), who believe in the triumph of the proletariat (working class) in the Hindi heartland.

And yet, Pratapgarhi’s fresh appeal has convinced many people, especially in Moradabad town, that the youngster should get a chance. A conversation started on the need for young idealists in Parliament. The SP, which holds two of the five Assembly constituencies that constitute the Moradabad Lok Sabha seat, scurried around and unleashed all the local stalwarts to stop the “division of votes”.

“Just because people come to hear a poet, it does not mean they would vote for him. This time, the Gathbandhan (an alliance of the SP, the BSP and the RLD) would sweep the seat,” said SP MLA from Moradabad(Rural) Haji Iqram Qureshi.

Anxiety among supporters

Others supporting the alliance were anxious till the last minute. “Muslims are divided among caste lines and different choices. That is why the BJP won from here last time. What is different this time is that the Gathbandhan’s core voters — the Jatavs, the Yadavs and the Jats — will vote on one side and the SP can be somewhat certain of victory,” said Nadeem Khan, a handicraft exporter in Moradabad.

In Rampur, with over 52 per cent Muslim voters, the BJP’s Nepal Singh trounced his nearest rival Naseer Ahmad Khan of the Samajwadi Party by 23,435 votes in 2014. This time, the BJP has fielded former MP and actor Jaya Prada from the constituency. She is confident of winning not just because a lot of people are upset with the SP strongman Azam Khan but because she believes that the Muslim vote “is not one block”. There were others who agreed with Jaya Prada but believed that the Gathbandhan arithmetic still tilted the scales in Azam Khan’s favour.

“Azam Khan is a Pathan, who has managed to annoy the Turks. Their vote is about 1.5 lakh and they are not going to support him. Then there are the Shias, who traditionally support the Congress because it has always fielded members of the family of Nawab of Rampur who is a Shia. They may still vote for the Congress even though it has fielded a Khatri, former MLA Sanjay Kapoor. Still, just because Azam Khan is standing in elections and there is 52 per cent Muslim vote, you cannot say he would win. He is helped by the core vote of Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Ajit Singh,” said Tamkeen Faiyyaz, a journalist in Rampur.

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