Kathmandu, Delhi push Madhesis to approach polls empty handed

The next weeks, until the scheduled local body elections in the plains on June 14, will be crucial for Nepali politics.

It will be a test of Kathmandu’s intent to bridge the emotional divide with the Madhesis and Janjatis who have been demanding that the constituencies be delimited proportionate to the population.

If the ruling classes choose not to, India will have to bear with a sizeable aggrieved population sitting right across its border.

The situation is particularly vulnerable for India as it took a stance in favour of this very section of the Nepali population in 2015, leading to a four-and-a-half-month-long agitation and trade stand-off by the Madhesis that earned the wrath of the hill population.

Any simmering anger in the region will have a law-and-order fallout on the Indian side, says Nihar Nayak, Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in Delhi. The situation will be particularly grave for Bihar and UP, which enjoy an open border and terrific people-to-people contact with Nepal.

Unresolved issues At the root of the problem lies the deep distrust between the hill-dominated ruling classes in Kathmandu and the Madhesis of the plains.

The divide surfaced in 2015, when, while promulgating the Constitution, Kathmandu refused to honour its decade-old agreement (as part of the peace process) to grant statehood to the plains.

The ruling hill population also brought in restrictive clauses (citizenship issues) directed at the strong marital bond between Madhesis and people from Bihar and UP, triggering the agitation.

Things have improved over the last two years as the Prachanda-led Maoist-Nepali Congress coalition initiated a process to amend the Constitution and conduct local body elections, which will be taking place after a gap of 20 years.

Given the fractured verdict in Parliament and the opposition of KP Oli’s CPN(UML) – that has its voter base in the hills – against the Madhesi demands, a revised amendment draft was put forth last month.

The Madhesi Morcha, an alliance of seven political parties, which was keen to participate in the elections, also softened its stance on State-demarcation issues, leaving it to a panel to take up the matter at a later date. This was a critical departure from the Morcha’s earlier stance.

The underlying expectation was that the government would increase the local body constituencies in the plains proportionate to the population. This was doable as it only needs Cabinet approval.

A raw deal Though half the Nepali population lives in the plains, the region is home to only 35 per cent of constituencies. An increase in local body constituencies would have helped the plains enjoy higher representation in the Upper House of Parliament.

Before the first phase of elections on May 14, Prachanda had left it to a committee to suggest modalities for constituency restructuring and promised to resolve issues before the second phase of polls.

That, however, is unlikely to happen now. The Opposition CPN(UML) opposed changing the number of constituencies after initiating the poll process. In a repetition of history, the government is now asking Madhesi parties to join the election and leave its core issue to be decided later.

The Madhesis are now in a dilemma. If they participate in the election without any of the demands being resolved, they will lose the trust of their own support base. If they don’t join the poll process, they will lose control over the resources.

India backs out To add to the Madhesi dilemma, India, which has been backing Madhesi demands till April, has now dropped the agenda altogether.

And what’s more, at least one large Madhesi party – Upendra Yadav’s Federal Socialist Forum — that has a support base among the Janjatis in the hills – broke ranks and decided to take part in the elections.

“If we don’t participate in the election, regressive forces will reap the benefit,” he told BusinessLine , adding that the government must live by its promises.

Sources in the Madhesi Morcha confirmed that they were in a tight spot. But they also point out that the political crisis of the Morcha should not be linked to a common Madhesi aspiration for equal social and political rights, and that leaving them unattended would invite trouble for all concerned.

Nihar Nayak of IDSA confirms the sentiments. “A large number of Madhesis will feel alienated if issues are not resolved and Terai may witness another round of violence,” he warned. “When Madhesis softened their stance, India should have supported their demand for socio-political rights,” Nayak said.

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