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India Meteorological Department (IMD) estimates that rainfall for the month of November averaged over the South Peninsula would be 122 per cent above the long-period average (LPA) of 117.46 mm or above.
Monthly rainfall for the month of November for the meteorological subdivisions of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikkal; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam; Rayalaseema; Kerala and Mahe; and South Interior Karnataka) is likely to be above normal.
In a presentation with respect to the pattern of rainfall for the month made in New Delhi on Tuesday, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Diretor-General, IMD, said the spatial distribution suggests normal to above normal rainfall over most parts of the region except for a few small pockets.
Normal to above normal
The IMD also predicted below normal to normal rainfall probability for many areas of North India and parts of North-West India and Central India.
Normal to above normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining part of the country.
Analysing the domestic and global climate drivers, Mohapatra said that currently sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric conditions over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate rain and storm-friendly La Niña conditions.
La Niña
Latest forecasts from IMD’s own Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) and global models suggest that La Niña conditions are likely to continue until March 2022. In addition to these conditions over the Pacific, the Indian Ocean SSTs also influence the Indian climate.
Currently, the neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Equatorial Indian Ocean. The model forecasts indicate that neutral IOD conditions (degraded from a strongly negative values) may continue during the upcoming months, possibly ruling out contrarian weather cues from the country’s own backyard.
Below-normal over North
Below-normal rainfall is predicted for Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh; Punjab; Himachal Pradesh; western fringes of Rajasthan along the international border; and parts of Western Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Maharashtra while it would normal to above normal for most of the rest of the country, the IMD outlook said.
Rainfall for the country as a whole so far (October to November 2) has been in surplus to the extent of 33 per cent. Over the South Peninsula, only the States of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana continued to post a deficit, respectively at 22 per cent and 35 per cent.
The North-East monsoon will pan out into the rest of the month as also into December which offers scope for these two States to make up for the early loss.
Meanwhile, the slow-moving and productive low-pressure area over the Comorin hung in over the region and promises to continue to generate heavy to very heavy rainfall for the South Peninsula until November 9, per an extended outlook for the short-to-medium term by the IMD.
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