The India Met Department (IMD) has said the 2018 North-East monsoon would be normal, that is between 89- to-111 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), over the South Peninsula.

The October-December rainfall for Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka is most likely to be normal, with a tendency to be on the positive side of the normal, the IMD said in a bulletin issued this morning.

The LPA of the North-East monsoon seasonal rainfall over the South Peninsula for the base period, 1951-2000, is 332.1 mm. The IMD also said the rainfall over Tamil Nadu is most likely to be above normal, i.e. equal to or above 112 per cent of LPA, which is 438.2 mm, during the period.

The normal timeline for the arrival of the North-East monsoon is between October 15 and 20, but the IMD does not announce a date in advance for the season.

Simultaneously, it declared that the South-West monsoon has started withdrawing from the western parts of Rajasthan from this morning. The season has ended with a rain deficit of nine per cent.

The typical anticyclone that shows signs of the monsoon on retreat, has been established over Rajasthan and adjoining areas in the lower tropospheric levels, the IMD said. There has been a substantial reduction in moisture content over the region, and dry weather conditions prevail over most parts West Rajasthan and Kutch.

In this manner, the monsoon has withdrawn from parts of Rajasthan, Kutch and north Arabian Sea, with the withdrawal line passing through Anupgarh, Nagore, Jodhpur, Jalore and Nalia this morning.

Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal from the remaining parts of Rajasthan; some parts of Punjab; Haryana (including Delhi); Uttar Pradesh; Madhya Pradesh, and some more parts of Gujarat and the North Arabian Sea during the next two-three days.

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