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As the larger monsoon regime bides time to sign off, localised cyclonic circulations and troughs have reared their heads to take control of weather in their respective geographies.
At least eight cyclonic circulations, two troughs and two itinerant western disturbances chipped in on Thursday with the residual South-West monsoon system still active mainly over East India.
The outcome is that Bihar may receive light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls on Friday. Thereafter, rainfall will reduce significantly over the State.
Thunderstorm in Ghats
Thunderstorms, lightning and isolated heavy rainfall would be confined mainly to East and North-East India (East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, Odisha, Assam and Meghalaya) during the next two days.
The Ghat areas of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may witness enhanced thunderstorm activity mainly on Saturday and Sunday, the India Met Department (IMD) said, as the build-up continues for monsoon transition.
The transition to North-East monsoon cannot take place unless predecessor South-West monsoon withdraws, a process that has been delayed by more than a month. It is now scheduled to begin from West Rajasthan from October 10.
On Thursday, a remnant cyclonic circulation from a previous low-pressure area lay on East Uttar Pradesh and the adjoining areas of Bihar, Jharkhand and North Chhattisgarh.
Western disturbances
Elsewhere, peer circulations stood guard over the central parts of South Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, South-West Rajasthan, North-West Bay of Bengal, adjoining Bengal and Coastal Odisha.
A trough, an atmospheric reservoir that holds moisture mopped up from the seas, ran down from Haryana to the hills of Bengal with three of the above circulations embedded into it.
A western disturbance was parked over the eastern parts of Jammu & Kashmir while an incoming was spotted on Thursday over Iran and adjoining Afghanistan. A fresh western disturbance is forecast to affect the Himalayan region from Sunday.
Also read: How not to plan for a rainy day
In the South, a cyclonic circulation lay over South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining Maldives-Lakshadweep while another was located over South Tamil Nadu. A trough sprang up from the latter and ran up to Interior Karnataka.
Wind transition
The IMD said isolated rain was observed over West and North-West India, including Gujarat and Maharashtra, during the 24 hours ended Thursday morning,
It has forecast isolated to scattered rain for North-West, West and Central India during the next three days while mainly dry weather would prevail over Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan during the subsequent two days.
Wind-profile projections indicate that the prevailing westerlies may soon start to give in gradually to easterlies to north-easterlies from the Bay of Bengal and across the South Peninsula.
But an odd cyclonic circulation might get tossed up over Kerala and Karnataka, and that might delay the mainstreaming of the easterlies over the Arabian Sea.
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