Severe cyclone Maha has crossed Lakshadweep and is moving away: IMD

The Arabian Sea may have seen most of the action so far during this North-East monsoon, but the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the Bay of Bengal is ready to catch up.

Erstwhile supercyclone Kyarr has weakened into a depression to the farthest side (western) of the Arabian Sea as successor severe cyclone Maha was parked 400 km West-North-West of Mangaluru on Friday morning.

There is no further adverse weather to be expected in the Lakshadweep Islands, with severe cyclone Maha crossing them moving away, the IMD clarified in its morning bulletin.

The IMD expects Maha to move North-North-West later into the afternoon and change direction to the North-West before reverting track to the West-North-West.

Basically, the severe cyclone would have entered the open waters of the Arabian by this time, and it would use the distance travelled coupled with the enormous elbowroom available to intensify as a very severe cyclone.

Meanwhile, morning satellite pictures showed the erstwhile supercyclone Kyarr breaking down (see image below, to the top left) off the Oman coast in the Arabian Gulf as full-blooded severe cyclone Maha prospered just off India's West Coast (Karnataka-Goa).

Away from Tamil Nadu

It is against this background that the IMD is picking up activity in the Bay of Bengal (the Andaman Sea) where it sees a low-pressure area forming as early as in the next two days (by Sunday, November 3).

This low is forecast to move West-North-West within the Bay of Bengal (but far away from the Tamil Nadu coast on India's East Coast) and concentrate into a depression over the East-Central Bay in the two days that follow.

Western disturbance

This away movement is likely being dictated by an incoming western disturbance from the opposite side across North-West India moving from West to East, a usual occurrence during this time of the year.

The westerly winds from the disturbance would dip into the Bay of Bengal and tag the brewing depression to it, to deposit it somewhere over Odisha/Bengal or the North-Eastern States.

This would only mean that Tamil Nadu's wait for the next round of meaningful rains from the North-East monsoon may extend, given the mini break that the season has apparently lapsed into.

Its hope lies in the projections of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction, which sees sustained activity in the Bay of Bengal thanks to storms being generated upstream in the North-West Pacific/South China Sea (see graphic below), which could send in some ‘burning embers.’

An outlook from November 6 to 8 suggested that isolated to scattered light/moderate rainfall along with thunderstorm activity may occur over Peninsular India and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Mainly dry weather should prevail over the rest of the country.

As for Friday, the IMD has said that severe cyclone Maha will bring heavy rainfall at isolated places over Kerala and Lakshadweep.

But it clarified that there is no adverse weather emerging over the Lakshadweep Islands as cyclone Maha has moved away from the islands.

Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning may lash isolated places over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada.

Lakshadweep may see wind speeds clocking in at 40-50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr decreasing gradually to 55-65 km/hr, gusting to 75 km/hr.

Squally winds with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr are likely along and off the Karnataka and Goa-Maharashtra coasts.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Lakshadweep area and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea, along and off the Karnataka-Goa-Maharashtra coasts.

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