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A data-driven predictive analysis, for the next 30-days assessed the Covid-19 outbreak in Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal as “severe”. The study was conducted by IIT Guwahati and Duke-NUS, Singapore.
“States that are in severe category need to do much more, in terms of the preventive measures immediately, to combat the Covid-19 pandemic,” said a released issued by IIT Guwahati.
The study said that the outbreak is “controlled” in Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala and Telangana. The situation is moderate in Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu.
The report is based on growth of active cases in recent times along with the daily infection rate (DIR) values for each State. Non-decreasing DIR value for two weeks along with a near exponential growth in active infected areas are held as mark of severe outbreak. The study presented three alternative estimates depending on the models in use.
Palash Ghosh, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, IIT Guwahati, said that the logistics model of analysis tends to under focus, whereas the exponential model may over focus. The linear combination of logistics and exponential analysis holds the middle ground.
Most of the States referred as “severe” have already outperformed the predicted infection count based on logistics analysis.
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