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A well-marked (intensified) low-pressure area over the Lakshadweep-Maldives area and adjoining Comorin has concentrated into a second successive depression after a predecessor went on to set up supercyclone Kyarr.
The India Metrological Department (IMD) located the depression this (Wednesday) morning about 390 km East-North-East of Male (Maldives) and 390 km East-South-East of Minicoy (Lakshadweep).
The depression is expected to move to the North-West across the Lakshadweep Islands and intensify into a deep depression, only a gust away from being classified as a cyclone, by Thursday.
The IMD has forecast light to moderate rainfall at most places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and South Tamil Nadu with heavy falls at isolated places during the next two days (Wednesday and Thursday).
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Kerala and Lakshadweep during this period. Extremely heavy rainfall is likely over the Lakshadweep Islands on Thursday. Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala’s capital, woke up on Wednesday morning to cloudy skies and intermittent showers.
Light to moderate rainfall is forecast for many places over Coastal Karnataka on Thursday with heavy rainfall at isolated places, the IMD said.
Squally winds with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr may prevail over the Comorin-Maldives area and adjoining Lakshadweep area until Thursday morning. Wind speeds may reach 35-45 km/hr gusting to 55 km/hr along and off the Kerala coasts during this period.
Strong winds
Winds may accelerate to 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr over the Lakshadweep area as the depression intensifies on Thursday, and to 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr along and off the Kerala-Karnataka coasts.
Sea conditions will be rough to very rough (between 13-20 ft waves) over the Comorin-Maldives area and adjoining Lakshadweep area as well along and off the Kerala coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the Comorin-Maldives area and the adjoining Lakshadweep area as well as along and off the Kerala-Karnataka coasts during this period.
Meanwhile, independent weather watchers have hinted that the ‘near-stationary’ depression and its slow progression indicate the prospect of rains over Kerala during the rest of the week.
Saturated ground conditions may increase the risk of flooding and landslides as the depression nearly reprises the track made infamous by the very severe cyclone Ockhi in 2017, they aver.
Kyarr weakens
Farther out into the Arabian Sea, supercyclone Kyarr, over the West-Central and adjoining East-Central basin, has weakened twice over, as expected, to an extremely severe cyclone and further into a very severe cyclone.
The IMD located it 1,100 km West-North-West of Mumbai; 930 km East-North-East of Salalah (Oman); and 370 km East-South-East of Masirah (Oman).
The IMD has been predicting that the very severe cyclone will re-curve West-South-West and move towards the Socotra Islands during the next four days.
The very severe cyclone is expected to weaken further into a severe cyclone by the early hours of Thursday and into a cyclone by the same evening, the IMD said.
Gale winds with speeds reaching 155-165 km/hr and gusting to 175 km/hr are currently prevailing around the centre of the very severe cyclone over the West-Central and adjoining North Arabian Sea.
These are very likely to reduce, gradually becoming 100-110 km/hr winds gusting to 120 km/hr by Thursday morning and to 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr by Friday morning before decreasing thereafter.
Sea conditions will be phenomenal (wave heights of 46 ft and above) over the West-Central and adjoining North Arabian Sea around the centre of the cyclone this (Wednesday) evening.
This will improve gradually thereafter, becoming high to very high (up to 46 ft) on Thursday and Friday. It will be high to very high over the East-Central Arabian Sea until Thursday.
Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the East-Central Arabian Sea and adjoining North Arabian Sea until Thursday and into the West-Central Arabian Sea until Saturday.
The Weather Company, an IBM Business, projects the path of the two current weather systems in the Arabian Sea over the next five days (Kyarr to the top left, and the new depression to the bottom right, in each frame) as follows:
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