Western disturbances retreat to upper Himalayas

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on March 05, 2021

While an incoming western disturbance and associated rainfall have reached Afghanistan (in green and blue top left) en route to the Himalayas, a predecessor is dictating a west spell over North-East India (top right). Rain clouds are about to hit Sri Lanka in the South (in green, bottom) and expected to radiate later into South Peninsular India. Credit: The Weather Company.

Snowing trend likely fed into monsoon modelling

The weather-making western disturbances have retreated to the higher reaches of the Himalayas leaving the low and mid ranges hosting popular destinations of Srinagar and Shimla, where associated snowing has stopped.

Snowing trend, as a parameter, may have already gone into this year’s monsoon forecasts.

Snowing starts much later in the low and mid reaches than the heights, but it also stops much earlier, said GP Sharma, Vice-President, Meteorology, Skymet Weather.

The only variables about them are frequency from month to month as well as the track, Sharma told BusinessLine. The southern-most track (when they dip into Central India and even Peninsular India) becomes consequent by its absence by February or early March. Thereafter it shifts North, ceding place to the monsoon.

Their frequency is least during the monsoon months. Manifestation of western disturbances in the weather charts may not be as strong as during the winter. Typical western disturbances present themselves only during the winter, but Sharma said these types were very rare to be seen during this season.

Fresh western disturbance

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that a fresh western disturbance may affect the hills (Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) of North-West India from Friday night, and the adjoining plains from Saturday.

It forecast scattered to widespread rainfall/snowfall to the hills from Saturday to Monday with peak intensity on Sunday. Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on Sunday.

Thunderstorm with lightning and hail may break out over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh on both days over Uttarakhand from Saturday to Monday. Isolated to scattered light rain/drizzle is likely over the plains in Punjab on Saturday and Sunday and isolated light rain/drizzle over North Haryana, Chandigarh and adjoining West Uttar Pradesh on Sunday.

Scattered to widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorm/lightning is likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during next 4-5 days. Isolated heavy rainfall may lash Arunachal Pradesh today while thunder squalls (with wind speeds of 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr) and hail are forecast over Assam and Meghalaya.

Published on March 05, 2021

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