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The United Kingdom has been witnessing the worst of the coronavirus pandemic as there seems to be no respite from the continuous waves of the infection. The first wave hit the country in late March, characterised by a high infection peak, and then registered a decline in August. The second wave rose steadily with the reproduction number staying above 1, pointing at a propagating epidemic.
The new findings of the sixth round of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, revealed that the weighted prevalence is 1.28 per cent, which indicates the prevalence of the infection has more than doubled within 20 days.
High-risk groups
The researchers stressed that all age groups had a higher prevalence during the ongoing wave. However, the biggest rise came in the 55 to 64 age group, at 1.20 per cent, which denotes a threefold increase from the previous round prevalence of 0.37 per cent.
Also read: UK to roll out Vitamin D supplements for people vulnerable to Covid
The prevalence was doubled to 0.81 per cent in the 65 and above group. However, the highest prevalence continued to be in the 18 to 24 age group at 2.25 per cent, up from 1.59 per cent in the last round.
The researchers also mentioned that unemployed people are less likely to be infected with the virus at 0.64 per cent, compared to those who come in contact with others during the course of their work.
The researchers noted that their October 2020 findings represent an acceleration in the second wave of infections in England.
Current protocols insufficient
Despite the government laying down social distancing protocols and taking non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the spread of the virus, researchers fear that the current compliance rates are not enough to bring down the R-value to below 1. This means the epidemic will continue to spread.
Also read: Global coronavirus case total tops 50 million
Notably, there are around 10 lakh infected individuals in England on any one day at present prevalence, assuming that nasal and oral swabs have a 75 per cent sensitivity to the virus and that viral detection is possible up to 10 days from infection, the study observed.
The researchers concluded in their study: “The second wave of the epidemic in England has now reached a critical stage. The inevitable outcome of accelerating transmission will be heavy hospitalisations and a high mortality rate. To avoid this, whether via regional or national measures, it is now time-critical to control the virus and turn R below 1.”
The findings of the study were published in the journal News Medical and Life Sciences.
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