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Goldman Sachs lowers US GDP forecast, sees 4.6 per cent contraction this year

Bloomberg | Updated on July 05, 2020 Published on July 05, 2020

The US-China trade tensions will cumulatively reduce global GDP by 0.8 per cent by 2020, points out IMF.   -  KSL

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists revised down their estimates for the U.S. economy this quarter but predicted it will be back on track in September after some states imposed new restrictions to combat the coronavirus.

While consumer spending appears likely to stall this month and next, economists led by Jan Hatzius said other economies have proved it is possible to resume activity and changes in behaviour such as wearing masks will help too.

A combination of tighter state restrictions and voluntary social distancing is already having a noticeable impact on economic activity, the economists said in a report published on Saturday.

The economists said they now expect the economy to grow 25 per cent in the third quarter having previously predicted 33 per cent. That would result in the economy slumping 4.6 per cent this year, worse than the 4.2 per cent already seen.

But the Goldman Sachs economists said they still expected growth of 5.8 per cent next year and now project unemployment will be at 9 per cent at the end of this year, down from the previous estimate of 9.5 per cent.

 

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Published on July 05, 2020
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