In March 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, when inaugurating the energy conference ‘Urja Sangam’, had said that India needs to bring down its import dependence on oil and gas to 67 per cent of its requirement by 2022.

“We currently import around 77 per cent in energy sector... We can reduce this import by at least 10 per cent by 2022. This 10 per cent we will produce ourselves and this should be our dream,” the Prime Minister had said. In 2019, as Modi enters his second stint as PM, the situation on imports hasn’t much changed. In fact, it has worsened — almost 84 per cent of demand is met through imports now. Going by the trend the target seems unattainable in the near horizon. Is Modi’s target too ambitious? The government did take policy initiatives to enhance domestic oil and gas production, promote energy efficiency and conservation measures, give thrust on demand substitution, capitalise untapped potential in bio-fuels/renewables and implement measures for refinery process improvement. But, results are still far and beyond.

The reason is simple. In this sector, results cannot be immediate. “It’s a good goal to aim for, but in the longer term — 10-15 years. It would be an unrealistic target in the shorter term,” says Vandana Hari, Founder and CEO of Vanda Insights. And she is not alone, industry players ditto her.

There are only two ways of meeting the target immediately: either by drastically cutting the demand of petroleum products or by ramping up the domestic oil/gas production. Both are unlikely. With Dharmendra Pradhan continuing as the Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister the time needed to educate a new minister will be saved. Pradhan by now is well aware of the challenges. This February, Pradhan, at an energy conference, said: “In our assessment, there is going to be a significant increase in the energy demand over the next 20 years and oil and gas are likely to remain prominent fuels in the global energy basket…it is also important that we take care of challenges arising out of global warming…”

What remains a challenge for Pradhan is implementation — supporting infrastructure — and how consistent the government is with its policies.

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