Dialogue and after

The ties between India and the US “will be one of the defining partnerships of the 21st century”, is how former secretary of state John Kerry described the growing relationship between the two countries. But the special relationship that was expected to develop, particularly after the Indo-US nuclear deal, never quite blossomed. However, the two countries took cautious steps forward at the 2+2 dialogue that just concluded in New Delhi. Most crucially, India signed Comcasa (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) which ensures interoperability between the two countries’ armed forces and allows hi-tech equipment sales to India. India has dithered over signing Comcasa for several years even though the deal had been specially tweaked to take care of its concerns. This means that sophisticated equipment like the Boeing P-81 can be bought with cutting-edge avionics that’s only available to US military partners and India has guarantees that the US will not deactivate the equipment under any circumstances. It also means that the armed forces of the two countries will be able to talk to each other during exercises and operations. This agreement has been described as making India a “near ally” of the US even though it isn’t a treaty partner. Significantly, the US recently re-designated its Pacific Command as the Indo-Pacific Command. An Indian naval officer is likely to be stationed with the US Navy in the Gulf region.

There has been give and take from both sides before the signing of this deal. The Americans have created a new category for India calling it a “major defence partner” which entitles it to receive high-end equipment, normally available only to treaty allies. India’s already buying $15 billion worth of arms from the US and that’s expected to rise steeply. The US hasn’t given concrete assurances, but there are indications it may not oppose India buying Russian S-400 missiles. However, it’s uncertain what view the US will take on India’s oil purchases from Iran and there are worries about the strategically important Chabahar Port. A last-minute stern warning has also come that India must buy more from the US and wipe out the trade deficit between the two countries.

From a different direction, the Chinese have been signalling furiously that India should keep its distance from the world’s top superpower. The Chinese have been mending fences with neighbours like India and Japan to focus on the trade war with the US. During the Doklam stand-off, India also discovered that Trump was not interested in its problems. Nevertheless, the die now appears to be cast and India is moving slowly but steadily closer to the US. India, however, needs to ensure that it does not sacrifice its regional geo-political and broader global economic interests in the face of rising US pressure.

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