Technical Analysis

Daily Rupee call: Sell on intraday rallies

Akhil Nallamuthu | Updated on March 19, 2020 Published on March 19, 2020

BL Research Bureau

The rupee (INR) has opened lower today, at 74.96 versus Wednesday’s close of 74.23 against the dollar (USD). Immediately after the open, it recorded its lifetime low of 74.98 against the greenback.

Yesterday, the local currency closed flat even after opening with a gain, hinting at persisting selling pressure. It is currently hovering around the important level of 75, and the year-to-date loss is now nearly 5 per cent.

The rupee has broken below the range between 73.5 and 74.5, opening the door for further decline. But 75 can act as support. Below that level, the local currency can fall to 75.5. On the other hand, if the rupee rises, it will face resistances at 74.5 and 74.35

There seems to be no respite for the Indian equity and debt market, as they continue to face significant sell-off. The Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) were net sellers in yesterday’s session too and as per the latest data by National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL), the net outflow for the month as on Wednesday is at ₹79,172 crore. This trend can have a substantial effect on the domestic unit.

Dollar index:

The dollar index broke out of the crucial level of 100 yesterday; it registered an intraday high of 101.74, which is also the highest in almost three years. It closed the session at 101.16 and today, the uptrend seems to continue as it is currently trading at 101.4. While the nearest resistance level is at 102, the support level is at 100.75.

Trade strategy:

The rupee registered its all-time low today, and bears seem to be tightening their grip on the local currency. Traders can either sell rupee with a tight stop-loss if it decisively breaks below 75 or sell rupee with stop-loss at 74.35 if the exchange rate moves to 74.6.

Supports: 75 and 75.5

Resistances: 74.5 and 74.35

Published on March 19, 2020
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