Technical Analysis

Nifty 50 March futures (17,305)

Gurumurthy K |BL Research Bureau | Updated on: Mar 29, 2022

Go short on rallies at 17,375

The Indian benchmark indices have been oscillating in a sideways range for more than a week now. The trading range is 57,000-58,500 on the Sensex and 17,000-17,400 on the Nifty. Within this range, Sensex opened with a gap-up and has come off its high of 57,933. On the other hand, Nifty has come off a high of 17,322. The Sensex is now trading at 57,786, up 0.34 per cent, and Nifty at 17,283, up 0.36 per cent. The immediate outlook is unclear. The indices can go either way from here. For now, we expect the range to remain intact and the indices to oscillate within it for some more time.

In Asia, barring the Shanghai Composite (3,209 down 0.16 per cent), the other major indices are trading in the green. The Nikkei 225 (28,148), Hang Seng (21,822) and Kospi (2,735) are trading in the range of 0.24-0.73 per cent.

In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (34,955.89) bounced back from a low of 34,552 yesterday. It remains to be seen whether the Dow manages to break above 35,000 today t. A strong break above 35,000 will raise hopes for the benchmark to hit 36,000, and even higher levels. The inability to breach 35,000 can keep it in the 34,000-35,000 range for some more time.

Futures: The Nifty 50 March (17,305) is hovering near the upper end of the 17,000-17,400 range. The sideways range is likely to remain in place for some more time. As such, a break above 17,400 is not likely to be seen today. Intermediate support is at 17,270. A break below that level can drag the contract down to 17,200 and lower. Traders with a high risk appetite can go short now and accumulate shorts at 17,375.  Stop-loss can be kept at 17,430. Trail the stop-loss down to 17,290 as soon as the contract slips to 17,240. Move the stop-loss further down to 17,230 as soon as the contract falls to 17,180. Exit the shorts at 17,160.

A breakout on either side of 17,000-17,400 will give a clear cue on the next moves.  Until then traders can play the range by selling higher and buying lower.

A break above 17,400 will be bullish for achieving the 17,600-17,800 range. On the other hand, a break below 17,000 will be bearish for the 16,800-16,600 range.

Trading Strategy: Go short now and on rallies at 17,375. Keep the stop-loss at 17,430 for the target of 17,160. Trail the stop-loss down to 17,290 as soon as the contract moves to 17,240. Move the stop-loss further down to 17,230 as soon as the contract falls to 17,180

Supports: 17,270 and 17,000

Resistances: 17,400 and 17,600

Published on March 29, 2022
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