Highlights of Economic Survey 2015—16, tabled in Parliament today * GDP growth next fiscal to be between 7-7.75%
* Growth this fiscal to be 7.6%, long-term potential at 8-10% if exports grow rapidly
* India haven of stability amidst gloomy global landscape
* Crude oil prices to be about USD 35 a barrel next fiscal, as against USD 45 this year
* Projects retail inflation at 4.5-5% for 2016-17
* Low inflation takes hold, price stability has increased
* Pay Commission implementation not to destabilise prices
* Proposes widening of tax net from 5.5% of earning individuals to more than 20%
* Challenging external environment to cast shadow on economic policies
* 3.9% fiscal deficit target achievable this year, coming year to be challenging
* Subsidy bill to be below 2% of GDP next fiscal
* Concerned over delay in GST Bill
* Balance sheets of corporate, banks remain stressed; need 4Rs: Recognition, Recapitalisation, Resolution and Reform
* PSU banks’ capital need at Rs. 1.8 lakh crore by FY19
* Current account deficit at 1-1.5%, forex reserves at $351.5 bn in mid-Feb.
* Services sector growth in 2015—16 seen at 9.2%
* Suggests revival of domestic demand as foreign capital outflow likely
* Sees good performance by industrial, infrastructure, corporate sectors due to recent reform
* More investment in health, education; focus on agriculture
* Government tax revenues to be higher than budgeted
* Exports slowdown to continue; pick up in next fiscal
* India should resist protectionist measures in trade
* Suggests reform package for fertiliser sector
Direct and indirect tax data should be integrated. Property transactions and small businesses escape the tax net
Despite being staple fare, the former CEA’s latest book is not lacking in style and wit
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