The Hindu Business Line : `Negative issues' don't govern this TN election

Lower distress levels thanks to the immensely improved groundwater levels, a decent law and order situation and "no promotion of casteism", and a general sense of well being seems to have taken the fizz out of the election to the Tamil Nadu Assembly in the villages of Tiruchi-Dindigul belt.

One striking feature of this TN Assembly election, compared to the previous one in 2001, is that people do not reach out to you with their list of problems and complaints.

For a change there are smiles all around; whether it is thanks to a booming Indian economy which has distributed some money among various sections of the community at least in the better off States such as Tamil Nadu, or a decent administration, one is amazed at the comparative dearth of "negative issues" that govern all elections and determine the fortunes of various political parties.

Mr Xavier Hridayaraj, an accountant in the HP petrol bunk at the Dindigul bypass junction, is the quintessential political analyst. With great gusto he sets about the task of explaining why this "election is too tough to say which party will form the government. By and large, in the last five years, we have had peace; there has been no law and order situation or violence of any kind in this area."

DMK better placed

Considering this, he adds, the AIADMK should return to power. But the DMK alliance, which did spectacularly in the 2004 Lok Sabha election, is by and large intact, but for Vaiko's MDMK, which has crossed over to Jayalalithaa's side. "But thanks to its grand alliance, which includes strong parties such as the Congress, PMK, and the two Left parties, is in a better position to give a tough fight and make a pitch for coming to power." He says that even though Jayalalithaa has rolled back all her "unpopular decisions" after the drubbing she got in the Lok Sabha polls, including restoration of benefits to government servants "a section of this group is still angry with her and feels that all their benefits have not been restored. So many of them will vote against her and that will hurt the AIADMK alliance."

But wouldn't Vaiko's joining the alliance not help her? "Not really. By doing that, Vaiko has destroyed his own credibility. He is seen by the people as a selfish leader who will sacrifice principles for the smallest advantage. Today people don't look up to him as a reliable leader." Instead of Vaiko, continues Mr Hridayaraj, Vijaykanth is a much better leader. "His approach is positive; he says that he will help people. He sounds sincere and there are many people who say they are going to vote for him."

Chance for newcomers

Ms Indira, a 25-year-old housewife, who is waiting to board a bus at Vallarpuram, about 30 km from Tiruchi, agrees. She has stars in her eyes as she tells you that she doesn't miss a single movie of Vijaykanth and that "he deserves a chance. We've tried all the politicians. I can't say I have any major problems with this government; things are peaceful and people are able to find some employment or the other, but I think we should give newcomers a chance."

Mr Bharatiyar, a catering student, who too is waiting to board a bus, agrees. "I think I will also vote for him. Let us have some change." But Mr Chandru, who works in a petrol bunk and who often has to report on night shift, says that he'd rather stay with the AIADMK. "Amma has given a good government; what is the problem that people are facing? He asks dramatically, answering the question himself. "Nothing at all. In the previous DMK regime, in the night buses, there used to be many thefts and I was really scared to travel; but these days thefts have stopped and all the passengers feel very secure."

But what makes the election interesting is that every village you stop by, you get supporters of every party.

Mr Raja Kallur is getting a hair cut at a barber's shop in Valikanthpuram, about 50 km from Tiruchi. He is an ardent DMK supporter, and has returned to India after working in a hotel in Dubai for two years. "I came back thinking the Indian economy is doing well, so I'll get a good job here. But no such luck. Nothing has changed, and I've decided to go back, but not before voting for the DMK," he says. But one thing is clear; lack of negative issues, which normally infuriate people and kick in anti-incumbency are missing, making this election one of the most closely fought in Tamil Nadu.

(To be continued)