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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Jan. 16

Southern India is likely to have a greater than usual chance for below normal precipitation for the three months beginning February, indicating hot and dry summer ahead.

But no `tilt of odds' is predicted for precipitation in North India, says a forecast from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University. Normal weather will hold over the region, according to Dr Tony Barnston, Director-Forecasting, IRI.

Writing to Business Line, he said the emerging weather for southern India flowed from the recent cooling of the sea surface temperatures (SST) along the Indian coast, in contrast to the warm than normal SST that continues closer to the equator in the Indian Ocean.

Active weather systems thrive on the `ground support' provided by warmer ocean surface, which provides the jet fuel that drives the turbine of the system. Incursion of cooler water into the regime squelches the chance of any incipient system developing and dictating weather.

For North India, emerging weather would rather depend on the positioning of individual systems that are unpredictable by nature. In any case, not much rain falls at this time of year in central and northern India.

The Indian Ocean dipole, the seasonal seesawing of SSTs from east to west and vice versa, has weakened in the last month and now exerts minimal influence, said Dr Barnston.

Agreeing with the observation was Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, said the dipole was a consequential event to the El Nino and no precursor to any weather event.

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