The Hindu Business Line : Mumbai is not rained out just yet

Thiruvananthapuram, July 1 The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) grim long-range outlook for monsoon (seven per cent deficit) has contrastingly triggered one of the wettest sessions yet for central and west India as a well-marked ‘low’ sat menacingly over southwest Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood on Sunday.

Still more is to come with all available forecasts suggesting the formation of another low-pressure area, third in a row, in the Bay of Bengal basin by Thursday. This system will commandeer the strong westerly flows around itself for at least until July 11, promising another 10 more days of active monsoon phase for east, central and west India.

But, as per the IMD prognostications, the monsoon should go into a lull subsequently, leading to a washout of the seven per cent excess rainfall recorded till June 27 (and rising). July rainfall is forecast to be restricted to 95 per cent only, which, the IMD says, will drag down the overall seasonal precipitation to 93 per cent.

RAMPAGING FLOWS

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forecasts for this week say that the rampaging westerly monsoon flows from the Arabian Sea will be made to barge into and rise against the ghats in the Konkan-Goa region. This ‘orographic lift’ will cause oodles of moisture to get dumped in a curtain of rainfall over this region, which includes Mumbai and Saurashtra, in that order.

An IMD update said on Sunday that the previous day’s well marked ‘low’ over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining west Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha had shifted perch to over southwest Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood.

Widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy fall and isolated extremely heavy falls has already occurred over Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa, madhya Maharashtra and the Gujarat region.

The current meteorological analysis suggests that widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy fall is likely over Konkan and Goa, including Mumbai, madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat State till Monday and ease thereafter. Isolated extremely heavy fall (25 cm and above) is also likely over Gujarat region.

Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over southwest Madhya Pradesh, adjoining southeast Rajasthan and coastal Karnataka during the next 24 hours.

On Sunday, the northern limit of monsoon passed through Barmer, Bikaner, Churu, Rohtak, Ludhiana and Amritsar. An offshore trough is running from the Kerala coast right up to the north till the Konkan Coast

EXCESS RAINFALL

Statistics till June 27 reveal that rainfall has been excess in 13 met sub-divisions, normal in 17 and deficient only in six. These were seven, 16 and 10 respectively, apart from am additional three with little or no rain, the same day an year ago (June 28, 2006).

Coastal Andhra Pradesh (+137 per cent); North Interior Karnataka (+119 per cent); Lakshadweep (+87 per cent) and Madhya Maharashtra (78 per cent) led the list of met divisions with excess rainfall. Jharkhand (-58 per cent) East Rajasthan (-49 per cent); east Uttar Pradesh (-45 per cent); and east Madhya Pradesh (-42 per cent) were the main deficit regions.

But, going by the ECMWF predictions, most of the deficit regions are expected to get a round of rainfall from the freshly brewing system in the Bay of Bengal, which will move in a north-northwest track inland before heading west-northwest. This will go to further boost the case of an evenly distributed monsoon rainfall that has been the enduring theme for most part of the season till now.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather | Maharashtra

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Mumbai is not rained out just yet

Top 10 cos raise $3.1 billion through FCCBs

Honda’s small car won’t come cheap

Affluent Indians ready to splurge on realty abroad

Sensex, Nifty may touch new peaks

FIIs keep faith in mid-caps

PE firms more interested in buyouts