The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon strikes a pause ahead of next big surge

Thiruvananthapuram, June 3 The monsoon did not make appreciable progress in its spatial coverage relative to the position on Monday, but fairly widespread rainfall was recorded over regions already under its footprint, especially in the east and the north-east.

This could be the pause it needs before the next big surge across the Arabian Sea catapults it to peak activity to cause widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Lakshadweep, Kerala and coastal Karnataka over the next four days.

This phase would see the rain belt extend northward into Konkan and Goa, according to an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook on Tuesday. The monsoon ‘leading edge’ seeking out fresh earth for coverage could caress Mumbai-south Gujarat in the event.

The leading edge is laced by thunderstorms and squalls, and it unfolds as it whips past virgin landscape battered by the summer sun. It skips those areas covered by the preceding monsoon pulse.

Wind speeds in the east Arabian Sea had accelerated to 20-25 knots (37-46 km/hr). Over east-central Arabian Sea, the speeds clocked a maximum of 37 km/hr but featured cyclonic turning off coastal Karnataka.

RESURGENT FLOWS

The resurgent flows are seen pushing the system further to the north towards the Mumbai-south Gujarat coast where the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees a ‘low’ shaping up around June 10.

This phase might see a counterpart ‘low’ spin up over the Head Bay of Bengal.

Contrary to earlier forecasts, the Bay ‘low’ is seen drifting slowly to the west-northwest to emerge over the West Bengal coast.

But no further movement to the farming heartland in the plains is indicated as per projections available on Tuesday.

As for the Arabian Sea ‘low’, ECMWF sees intensification into a depression and a westward movement away from the Gujarat coast.

But consistent forecasts by the Roundy-Albany experimental model for tropical cyclone sees the system parking itself over Gujarat.

The IMD outlook said rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over south Konkan and Goa and isolated over south madhya Maharashtra and north Konkan during the next two days and increase, thereafter.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

The 24 hours ending Tuesday morning witnessed fairly widespread rainfall over Lakshadweep, Kerala, coastal Karnataka, the north eastern States, West Bengal and Sikkim.

The Chennai Regional Meteorological Centre said rainfall occurred at most places over Lakshadweep and at many places over Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka.

Isolated rainfall was reported from Tamil Nadu, north interior Karnataka, Telangana and Rayalaseema. But mainly dry weather prevailed over coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models suggested that the ongoing fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to continue over the north eastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next three days.

Rain or thundershowers have been forecast for a few places over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh during the next two days and increase thereafter. Isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over the rest of east India.

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