The Hindu Business Line : N.India may get rains from Thursday

Thiruvananthapuram, Jan. 13 A slow-moving western disturbance with an induced cyclonic circulation in tow is expected to enter northwest India and buffet the western Himalayas with moderate to heavy snowfall/rainfall over five days from Thursday.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) traced the system to over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir on Tuesday.

The plains are expected to be brought under its influence on Saturday and Sunday, the IMD said.

Associated clouding would ensure that mercury stays elevated by at least 3 to 4 deg Celsius above normal.

MERCURY FALLS

Mercury fell by 1 to 3 deg Celsius over parts of central and east India as a pre-existing western disturbance exited to bring in cold and sinking air in its wake.

Further fall by about 2 deg Celsius is likely over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during the next two days.

RAIN AND SNOW

The IMD has forecast rain or snow at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours and at a few places thereafter.

Mainly dry weather is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, north Haryana and Chandigarh during the next two days and isolated precipitation thereafter.

On the northern front, icy and windy weather would settle over Jammu and Kashmir and spill into Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand as the western Himalayan ranges block the westerlies and wrench out moisture.

Extended forecasts by the IMD suggested that scattered to fairly widespread precipitation is likely over the western Himalayan region for three days from Friday.

Isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers is likely over northern plains.

DRY MJO PHASE

In the south, rain or thundershowers have been forecast isolated places over Tamil Nadu as a weak easterly wave tries to find its moorings but may not entirely succeed thanks to resistance from upper atmosphere.

A dry phase from a passing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave is seen holding strong over the Equatorial Indian Ocean during this period and until the end of January according to forecasts by international models.

The MJO wave amplifies weather events over regions falling under its footprint as it travels periodically from west to east over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific.

This may not always hold true during the Indian monsoons since these are strong individual systems and capable of precipitating events by themselves.

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