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Private sector weather forecaster Skymet Weather has predicted a below-normal to marginally-below-normal monsoon this year, with 95 per cent of the long period average (LPA) rainfall of 887 millimeters for the monsoon season.
In its first monsoon forecast issued on Monday, Skymet outlined the likely El Nino impact on the rains during the four months of the monsoon season. However, the agency points to a 5 per cent margin of error in its estimation, which indicates a marginally-below-normal monsoon. India’s South-West monsoon sets in around June and withdraws in September. It assumes importance given the excessive dependence on the rains for crops such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and maize.
Skymet CEO Jatin Singh told BusinessLine : “The below-normal forecast is primarily because of the El Nino impact, which is likely in the next couple of months. The models also show a normal to below-normal monsoon with a slight tilt towards below-normal. The El Nino trend has been becoming stronger since January. This is a conservative prediction in the wake of an El Nino impact.”
While Skymet maintains zero percentage possibility of excess rainfall, there is a 10 per cent chance of above-normal rainfall (in the range of 105-110 per cent of the LPA). There is a 50 per cent chance of a normal monsoon (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA).
The weather agency, however, maintains a 15 per cent chance of drought (meaning seasonal rainfall less than 90 per cent of LPA). There is a 25 per cent chance of a below-normal monsoon (rainfall between 90-95 per cent of the LPA).
“We track an index of about 70 scientific organisations around the globe. And by averaging it out, we can say that about 65-68 per cent of them have predicted the impact of El Nino in the next couple of months. At best, this year is going to be a below-normal or a marginally normal year,” added Singh.
Geographically, the East and the North East region will have relatively good rains, while there will be concern in Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Notably, the southern region is already reeling under drought conditions.
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