Asian shares fell to near 10-week lows on Tuesday and the US dollar pared some of its recent losses as investors were worried about the likelihood of a US interest rate increase in coming weeks.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 0.4 per cent, taking its losses to nearly 5 per cent so far this month and nearing its lowest levels since March 9.

“The market seems to be taking a cautious stance ahead of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech later this week,” said Jung Sung-yoon, a foreign exchange analyst at Hyundai Futures.

Fed rate hike

A string of comments in recent weeks by Federal Reserve officials and minutes of the last Fed meeting have put a possible rate hike firmly on the table for June or July, reviving the dollar but cooling appetite for riskier assets, even if markets are not totally convinced a tightening will come so soon.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker had said on Monday that a hike in June is appropriate unless data weakens, while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said holding rates too low for too long could cause financial instability.

With economic growth across emerging markets showing fresh signs of flagging — ratings agency Moody's growth in G20 emerging markets to ease to 4.2 per cent in 2016 compared with 4.4 per cent last year — investors are growing more bearish on the outlook for stocks.

Shares in China and Japan led regional markets down with 0.7 per cent losses each, though some investors were wary of chasing markets lower after their recent retreat.

Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Markets in Melbourne described sentiment as “undoubtedly bearish’’, adding that prices are “delicately poised and could go either way’’.

Dollar vs yen

The dollar trimmed some of its losses against the yen after skidding nearly 1 per cent against its Japanese rival in the previous session to a low of 109.12. It was last up 0.2 per cent at 109.40 yen, moving back towards Friday’s three-week high of 110.59.

Data on Monday showed Japan posted a trade surplus for the third consecutive month, and a Group of Seven finance ministers’ meeting concluded on Saturday with a US warning to Japan against intervention to weaken the yen.

But overall, the dollar was bolstered by growing bets that the Fed was gearing up to raise interest rates sooner than many investors had expected, despite signs of persistent global weakness.

“The yen gained as risk aversion overcame the Fed officials’ hawkish views. Upward pressure on the yen was stronger due to weaker stocks and falling commodities,” said Junichi Ishikawa, FX analyst at IG Securities in Tokyo.

“That said, the dollar index has stood tall overall amid a significant rise in the two-year US Treasury yield. Trades preparing for a potential Fed rate hike in June are likely to continue.”

Yellen’s speech

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will appear at a panel at Harvard University on Friday, a day on which investors will also see the second estimate of US first-quarter growth. Markets also await comments from other Fed officials this week, as well as data on new home sales, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.

The dollar index, which tracks the US unit against a basket of six major counterparts, was up a shade at 95.32, still with sight of Thursday’s peak of 95.520, its loftiest level since March 29.

The euro edged down 0.1 per cent to $1.1210, holding above far last week’s low of $1.1180, its lowest since late March.

Crude oil futures

Crude oil futures stabilised after dropping on Monday as Iran vowed to ramp up output and as the number of rigs drilling for crude in the United States held steady after declining for eight straight weeks.

US crude slipped 0.2 per cent to $48.02 a barrel, while Brent was off 0.3 per cent at $48.21.

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