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As expected the deep depression has wound down a level in strength to a depression over the east-central Arabian Sea where it has been for more than a day.
It is the slow movement and exposure to dry westerlies from the Arabian Gulf that has contributed to its weakening over the waters.
POTENTIAL CAPPED
Its potential may have been capped in this manner, but the weather system in the Arabian Sea has managed to achieve what was expected of it over the southern Indian peninsula.
It has tweaked the wind regime almost irreversibly to a northeasterly-to-easterly direction in the South, bringing the early winter chill from North-West India into play right into Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
In the process, the curtains may have finally fallen on the southwest monsoon, and it will be a matter of time before the Met formally calls it a day for the year 2015 season.
The withdrawing monsoon alignment is now stalled along an arc extending from Forbesganj to Ranchi, Raipur, Nagpur, Jalgaon, and Veraval (Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat).
MONSOON WITHDRAWAL
So it has already exited most of North and Northwest India and is now poised to do so in Central India and the rest of the peninsula.
It was the depression and the southwesterly flows triggered by it that had stalled the process of the monsoon withdrawal.
The depression is now expected to weaken rapidly, which would allow the withdrawal process to gather pace and set the stage for the northeast monsoon over peninsular India.
As pointed out earlier, the winds are already turning northeasterly-to-easterly over the region as the depression sped away from land.
The transition to a northeasterly monsoon will start sooner than later; the Met may likely declare the withdrawal of the monsoon and the onset of the reverse monsoon simultaneously.
WEATHER WARNING
The Met said this morning that the depression in the Arabian Sea lies about 520 km west-northwest of Goa and 510 km southwest of Mumbai. It would move west-northwestwards and weaken into a well marked low pressure area.
In a weather outlook, it said the system will trigger moderate rainfall at a few places over Konkan and the adjoining south Gujarat region until tomorrow morning.
Strong winds reaching a speed of 30 to 40 km/hr and gusting to 50 km/hr would prevail along and off the Konkan, Goa, and south Gujarat coasts during this period. The sea condition would be rough.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the deep sea along and off the south Gujarat, Konkan, and Goa coasts until tomorrow morning.
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