Weakness in its refining and petrochemicals business is likely to weigh on Reliance Industries’ March quarter results, dragging down its consolidated net profit by 3.5 per cent, though revenue is seen rising 9.7 per cent on good retail sales, oil and gas business and telecom operations.

The conglomerate, which will report its fourth quarter and FY24 results on Monday, is expected to report a quarterly net profit of ₹18,628 crore on revenue of ₹2.4 lakh crore, according to analysts. Sequentially, the net profit and revenue are seen rising but in single digits.

During the quarter, the benchmark Singapore gross refining margin fell 10 per cent on year due to weak global product cracks. Nuvama Research in its quarterly preview said that it expected RIL’s O2C EBITDA to fall 8 per cent on year “on weak refining and petchem”.

Motilal Oswal expects RIL’s consolidated EBITDA to rise 10 per cent on year to ₹38,800 crore, led by Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail. On a standalone basis, EBITDA is seen flat at around ₹18,200 crore. 

Reliance Jio is seen to report a 2.5 per cent revenue growth sequentially helped by a 3.5 per cent rise in its subscriber base and average revenue per user holding stable at ₹182. The telecom vertical’s EBITDA margin is seen improving 40 basis points to 52.7 per cent, while the capex is seen to remain the same as last quarter.

Elara Capital has pegged Reliance Retail’s EBITDA to rise 42 per cent and digital services to rise 11 per cent.

The street will be looking for commentary, clarity, and updates on the ₹75,000 crore of investments announced in the new energy business, retail store additions and pricing actions in telecom services.