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Over one-tenth of the world’s electricity supply will come from renewable energy sources (other than hydro-power) by 2030.
At present, unconventional renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, geo-thermal, bio-power and tidal power, make up less than 4 per cent of the world’s energy mix.
A study by research and consultancy firm Frost & Sullivan estimates that global electricity generation will rise by 57.2 per cent by 2030 to 33,370 terawatt hours. Taking into account hydro-power, renewable energy sources will constitute over one-fourth of the world’s power generation in 2030.
Sustainable fuels
Rather than pursue high-pollution fossil fuel-based capacities, nations are expected to diversify their energy mix to increase reliance on cleaner and more sustainable fuels, such as gas.
India is taking steps in this direction, with the contribution of renewable energy to the nation’s electricity output targeted at 15 per cent by 2020.
With respect to global projections, “the drivers for non-hydro renewables (predominantly, wind) would be the regulations across the developed markets of EU and North America to meet Renewable Energy Directives (viz. EU directive of 20 per cent by 2020, implying 20 per cent of total energy consumption must be contributed by renewable energy),” says Frost & Sullivan Associate Director (Energy & Power Systems Practice), Amol Kotwal.
He says the main rationale for embracing renewable energy technologies is that, unlike fossil fuels, which pose environmental hazards in the form of harmful emissions and the greenhouse effect, renewable energy sources are clean.
“Additionally, fossil fuel-based plants involve dependence on fuels having limited availability (coal, oil, etc.), which is not the case with wind or solar plants…. Fossil fuel-based power plants also have a higher opex involved,” he adds.
While coal will remain the largest source for power generation, its share of total generation capacity will decline from 40.8 per cent in 2010 to 34.6 per cent in 2030.
Less fossil fuel use
Natural gas will be the second most widely used fuel for power generation, though its share in total power output will rise but marginally, from 21.2 per cent to 22.3 per cent over the next two decades. Frost & Sullivan expects the share of nuclear power in global electricity generation to remain constant at 13 per cent, mainly as a consequence of the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in Japan and the plans to phase out atomic-fuelled plants in Europe.
Tried and tested renewable hydro-power sources will see their share shrink from 16.7 per cent to 15.5 per cent, while wind power generation’s contribution will increase from 1.7 per cent to 6.6 per cent.
The decline of oil use in power generation is another key projection made by Frost & Sullivan, which expects electricity produced from fossil fuels to register 2 per cent de-growth up to 2020 and 3 per cent between 2020 and 2030.
This would result in its share of total global energy generation declining from 4.5 per cent in 2010 to 1.8 per cent in 2030.
> arvind.jayaram@thehindu.co.in
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