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Heavy rain has been forecast over Kerala and Tamil Nadu during next two days ahead of the arrival of North-East monsoon or ‘monsoon in reverse.’
An extended forecast for the next seven days said that rain or thundershowers would lash many places over extreme south peninsular India.
HEAVIER IN TN
One or two places over coastal Tamil Nadu are expected to witness heavy rains, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Meanwhile, global forecasts said easterly winds have brought North-East monsoon over South China Sea and the Gulf of Thailand, just to the east of Andaman Sea.
Vestiges of predecessor South-West monsoon prevail over Andaman Sea, but should soon give way for easterlies blowing in from the Gulf of Thailand.
Andaman Sea is the gateway for North-East monsoon. An ‘easterly wave’ will help reverse the flows here to being easterly winds over the next few days.
Over peninsular east coast, a trough (elongated area of low pressure) lay extended in readiness from Odisha to south Kerala.
INITIALLY WEAK
It featured a cyclonic circulation over south Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu, which has been triggering brief wet spells on Friday. The Climate Prediction Centre of US National Weather Services suggests seasonal rains (North-East monsoon) may not drive up to full strength over peninsular India and south-east Bay of Bengal at least until October 23.
As had been forecast, the withdrawal of predecessor South-West monsoon all on a sudden gathered pace on Friday.
It signed off from Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, north Arabian Sea, Bihar, Vidarbha, parts of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Marathawada, madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and central Arabian Sea.
EXIT PHASE
The withdrawal line passed through Forbesganj, Hazaribagh, Champa, Bramhapuri, Nanded, Pune and Alibagh.
Conditions are favourable for further withdrawal from Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, parts of West Bengal, Sikkim, the north eastern States, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and central Arabian Sea during next three days.
> vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in
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