Usually, monsoon begins its journey hitting the Andamans on May 20. Last year, it arrived there on May 17.

“This year, monsoon will not arrive in Andamans on May 20,” said Dr A.V. Majumdar, Deputy Director General of Meteorology (Weather Forecast), Pune.

The India Meteorological Department weather bulletin on Thursday was silent about monsoon activity until May 24.

This means, monsoon will not hit the Andamans for the next four days. “Our prediction is only for monsoon hitting the Kerala coast on May 31, plus or minus four days,” Dr Majumdar said.

Usually, it takes 10-12 days for the monsoon to travel to Kerala from the Andamans. But it can advance rapidly based on wind speeds or could even reach a little late.

Last year, the onset of monsoon in Kerala was May 31 against the IMD's projection of May 30. Past records of the onset of monsoon have no definitive indications of how it will behave. Last year, despite a day's delay in monsoon arrival, there was 2 per cent surplus rain.

In 2009, monsoon arrived three days ahead of the IMD projection but rainfall was 22 per cent deficient.

In 2008, monsoon arrived two days late and rainfall was 2 per cent deficient. In 2007, it was delayed by four days but there was six per cent surplus rainfall.

The year before, there was one per cent deficient rainfall after monsoon hit Indian shores four days early.

A normal monsoon boosts economy by way of lower inflation, higher farm income and better sales of automobiles and FMCG goods. . It has an effect on markets too.

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