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Global weather models are predicting above average rainfall for most parts of north-west, east and northeast, central and adjoining north peninsular India until the month-end.
The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services has vouched ‘high confidence' in its outlook along the same lines.
DEFICIT AT 1%
This should expectedly help prevent the overall rain deficit, maintained for more than a week at just one per cent as on Wednesday, from deteriorating significantly.
The first week of September may also see enhanced rainfall in the Bay of Bengal area, the CPC said in its forecast for the week-after, and of which it had ‘moderate confidence.'
Most dynamical model forecasts of a helpful Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave in the upper level indicate an increase in amplitude with eastward propagation during the period.
This signal contributes to the outlooks for this week, the CPC said.
But it remains uncertain whether this signal will establish itself as a long-lived event into September, it added, and hence the ‘moderate confidence'.
MJO SIGNAL
The expected increase in the MJO signal with an eastward propagation elevates the chances for enhanced rainfall across northern Pakistan, India, the Bay of Bengal, and South-east Asia.
Although uncertainty exists on the duration of a continued MJO signal during the week-2 period, its expected phase could lead to enhanced rainfall across the Bay of Bengal and South-east Asia.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction too had come out with mostly similar forecast for the next two weeks starting Thursday.
TWIN CYCLONES?
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast has hinted at the possibility of formation of a rare twin-cyclone system in the north-west Pacific during the first week.
This is what would perk up the flows across the Arabian Sea, peninsular India, the Bay of Bengal, and into South China Sea/North-west Pacific.
This phase would also see enhanced activity along the Andhra Pradesh-Orissa coast as well as Konkan-Goa, the forecast outlook said.
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