The ongoing week (October 13-19) will be crucial for the South-East Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the upstream South China Sea given the possibility of storm formation (low-pressure area or depression) assigned to each basin.

The US Climate Prediction Centre has given out a forecast along these lines even as it watched tropical storm (depression) ‘Kompasu’ parked over the South China Sea on Wednesday. The depression may impact both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea during this week with a live storm remnant likely drifting into these basins.

South China Sea depression

India Meteorological Department (IMD) is already on the watch-out for a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal even as the Arabian Sea has been kept in a state of churn from much earlier. In the meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has upgraded outlook for the tropical Pacific from a ‘La Niña watch’ to a ‘La Niña alert’ that renders weather predictions for South Asia even more difficult.

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Historically, when La Niña Alert criteria have been met, La Niña has subsequently developed around 70 per cent of the time, the Australian Bureau said. A 70 per cent chance of the event is approximately triple the normal likelihood. This renders the West Pacific and South China Sea even more susceptible to storm development coinciding with the onset and early phase of the North-East monsoon over the Bay and the Arabian Sea.

Rain seen for South Peninsula

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction has indicated that the West Coast and rest of Peninsular India (except Tamil Nadu) will remain vulnerable for heavy rain during the week ending October 20. Moderate to heavy rain may lash the South Peninsula during the week that follows (October 20-28).

Meanwhile, the IMD said on Wednesday morning that the ‘low’ forming by Thursday over East-Central Bay of Bengal may move towards the South Odisha-North Andhra Pradesh coast, will cause rainfall intensity to increase over East India and adjoining Central India from Friday.

Heavy rain for Kerala

The persisting cyclonic circulation over East-Central Arabian Sea and responsible for driving up rainfall over Kerala and neighbourhood manifold over the past few days will hang in there for two or more days with a trough connecting it with the counterpart over the Bay.

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This combination will continue to cause fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall over the South Peninsula for four more days. Isolated heavy to very very heavy rainfall is forecast over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe and Tamil Nadu during this period while it will be isolated heavy over Lakshadweep until Thursday.

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