It’s a tough contest out there between the State-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private operator SkyMet, on who will get the right forecast on the South-West Monsoon.

IMD had, in June, predicted 88 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a ±4 per cent model error (which sounded alarm bells for agriculture) while SkyMet put it at 102 per cent (a good monsoon season). The South-West Monsoon is critical for the nation’s farming sector, and the economy in general.

With this year’s South-West Monsoon (June to September 30) crossing the halfway mark, the IMD, operated by the Earth Systems Science Organisation (ESSO), is standing firm on its lower-than-normal rainfall prediction. The cumulative rainfall received as per data from June 1 to August 7 is around 93 per cent of the LPA.

The ESSO-IMD said the government is aware that a private agency has predicted seasonal rainfall of 102 per cent of LPA for the 2015 south-west monsoon against its own prediction of 88 per cent. With about two more months of the monsoon season left, it is early to say which forecast is accurate.

The actual rainfall in July was 84 per cent of LPA, which is well within the forecast range issued by the ESSO-IMD model and far off SkyMet’s prediction. This was stated by Minister of State for Science & Technology and Earth Science YS Chowdary in a written reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha. The rainfall during the second half of the season is likely to be 84 per cent of LPA with a model error of ±8 per cent.

The rainfall during August is likely to be 90 ± 9 per cent of LPA, as was forecasted in June, the statement said. IMD figures reveal that rainfall during the week ended August 5 was 26 per cent below normal.

Meanwhile, two global forecasters — Tokyo-based Applications Laboratory of the Japanese Jamstec and Busan, and South Korea-based Asia Pacific Climate Centre — have forecast less-than-normal rainfall for August

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests that the token monsoon activity now taking place in the worst-hit South Peninsula may cease as super typhoons re-emerge over the Pacific, one after the other, next week.

Close monitoring

The Centre is closely and continuously monitoring the rainfall situation over the country. ESSO-IMD is issuing weather forecast/outlook with a lead period of five to 20 days.

The Grameen Krishi Seva Scheme of the IMD has been providing crop-specific advisories to farmers at the district/agro-climatic zone level twice weekly through different media.

(With inputs from Vinson Kurian, Thiruvananthapuram)

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