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The countdown for withdrawal of the South-West monsoon followed by the onset of the North-East monsoon has begun, as indicated by the wind projections of India Met Department (IMD).
The wind pattern could change predominantly easterly to northeasterly from tomorrow, setting off sustained movement of rain-friendly easterly waves towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts.
MAY GET DISRUPTED
This would lead to a calibrated increase in better organised rainfall over the South Peninsula, which, according to the IMD outlook, could get disrupted soon afterwards. This is being attributed to formation of a low-pressure area over South-East Bay of Bengal and its subsequent movement away, from the Central Bay.
Though initially travelling towards the Tamil Nadu coast, its northern flanks could get compromised and disoriented with an elongated trail leading towards Odisha/Bengal coasts. The US National Weather Services agrees with the outlook, but points out that there would still some activity happening close to the Sri Lanka-South Tamil Nadu coast.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, a storm could develop from the 'low' over South-East Bay only to re-curve towards the Myanmar coast. Meanwhile, a 10-day outlook from the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has said that the 'low' forming over the Bay may intensity into a depression.
But an extended two-week forecast issued by the IMD is of the view that there is low probability of a storm developing here.
LOW STORM PROBABILITY?
In fact, the European Centre has hinted at a second 'low' forming over the South-East Bay and heading straight into Central Bay soon after the predecessor fades out over Myanmar. These developments with a band of moderate to strong easterlies are enough to ensure that the North-East monsoon settles into its usual pattern and brings rainfall varyingly over the South Peninsula.
The IMD said last night that conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of the South-West monsoon from entire country by tomorrow, 20 days later than schedule. Simultaneously, conditions are also likely to become favourable for onset of the North-East Monsoon. The ongoing enhanced rainfall activity over the South Peninsula may continue for next two days.
This, according to indications, could merge into the incoming North-East monsoon rainfall, accompanied often by lightning and gusty winds. The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall over Coastal Karnataka, South Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala. From tomorrow, rains cold escalate over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
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