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A sneak peek into what international weather models deduce from evolving weather and extrapolate to the monsoon suggests largely indifferent rain for crucial geographies.
A survey of four leading models in the US, Europe (two) and Asia revealed that west and northwest India may likely be faced with below normal rain during the June-September season.
Early forecast These are earliest available forecasts and are based on weather parameters as they measure up in April.
These can change on a weekly to monthly basis during the run-up to the onset of monsoon in June.
Conditions in the equatorial and east Pacific suggests a building El Nino in which waters of the west (and closer to India) cool down. This suppresses evaporation and cloud-building.
Instead, the equatorial and east Pacific warm up. Resultant stormy weather and excess rainfall are driven away from Asia and towards the South American coast.
El Nino has no direct cause-impact relationship with the Indian monsoon but has at times coincided with deficit monsoon as in year 2009.
Global models are assessing that there is a 70 per cent of an El Nino occurring this year with the equatorial and east Pacific starting to warm up from June.
El Niño shadow It is forecast to progressively become stronger and entrenched during the next couple of months.
Available forecasts also tend to rhyme with this outlook with rains weakening in July-August. BusinessLine surveyed the April-based outlook from the European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); the UK Met Office (UKMO); International Research Centre for Climate and Society at Columbia University (IRI); and the APEC Climate Centre (APCC) at Busan, South Korea.
The forecasts for specific periods by these agencies are as follows:
May-June-July
ECMWF - Below normal for Gujarat, northwest India and east India.
IRI - No major deviation for whole country.
UKMO - 40- to 60 per cent chances for below-normal for northwest, central and east-central India.
APCC – (April-May-June) Excess rain for south peninsular and northernmost India.
June-July-August:
ECMWF - Largely below normal for west, north-west India and coastal Tamil Nadu.
IRI - Below normal in parts of Gujarat and Jammu and Kashmir.
UKMO - 40- to 60 per cent chances for below-normal for most parts of country going up to 60- to 80 per cent in some regions.
APCC – (July-August-September) Below normal in west and northwest India.
July-August-September:
ECMWF: Below normal in west and northwest and more parts of Tamil Nadu.
IRI - Below normal in peninsular India, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand.
UKMO - Below normal in almost entire country except east-central, east and north-east India.
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