The monsoon will go into a reset from the weekend in order to come up with the first post-onset ‘pulse,’ marked by escalation of activity along the East Coast to begin with, and a scale-up of rainfall.

The Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast would witness increased activity, which would build further in strength from June 8 culminating in the formation of another low-pressure area or depression.

Myanmar forecast

The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has already gone on record with its forecast of a depression in the Bay of Bengal during the three-four days from Sunday.

This is despite the brief disruption of the proceedings by another ‘rogue’ system in the Arabian Sea close to the Yemen coast. It would be an offshoot of the strengthening flows off the adjoining Horn of Africa (Somalia and neighbourhood).

But the Bay would rise to the occasion and salvage flows needed to sustain the monsoon back home, helped in no small measure by a couple of ‘low’s downstream over the South China Sea and adjoining East China Sea. Each would act as a ‘pulley’ linking the monsoon chain extending all the way from the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the seas around China and the adjoining North-West/West Pacific.

Peak activity

Given this, the monsoon is forecast to peak from June 8 with rains expectedly covering a wide swathe of East and Central India and the South Peninsula.

The monsoon has already covered entire Kerala, most parts of coastal Karnataka, more parts of South Interior Karnataka, and interior Tamil Nadu.

Latest satellite pictures showed most of East and North-East India under cloud cover set up by a remnant of the erstwhile deep depression that crossed the Myanmar coast two days ago.

Clouds are building up afresh far out in to the Arabian Sea, even as a cyclonic circulation waits over South-East Arabian Sea around Lakshadweep, which would help pull some of them in closer home.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction sees the West Coast being swamped by rain during the week beginning June 8 (Tuesday). The rains would reach Bihar and Uttar Pradesh by mid-June.

But West Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, eastern parts of Gujarat and the rest of North-West India would have wait further into June for the rain, the US agency assessed.

Meanwhile, the IMD has said that conditions are favourable for the monsoon to enter the North-Eastern states during the next two days.

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