A well-marked low-pressure area has popped up on Sunday over the Bay of Bengal the South Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh coast, the most ideal location to power another productive monsoon session for Central India, adjoining North Peninsular, East, and North-West India, some of which have witnessed punishing rain spells on two or three earlier occasions from predecessors originating from around the same location.

Track to Central and West India

India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the well-marked ‘low’ to go on to become a monsoon depression over the next two days and take its own time to move to next-door Odisha and Chhattisgarh. Numerical predictions show the system moving further into Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat and sign off gradually by when a successor will have formed, likely taking the same route inland, triggering another round of rain over a soaked geography. The US Climate Prediction Centre agrees with the outlook for back-to-back low-pressure areas developing over the Bay into mid-August.

Daily rain amounts lower, says Skymet

Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand continue to be saddled with major rain deficits, while the rest of the country have received normal to above-normal rainfall so far during the monsoon this year. Private forecaster, Skymet Weather observed the daily monsoon rain has dropped to below normal for the seventh straight day of August over the country as a whole with the surplus of 14 per cent in mid-July having drained out to being just six per cent on Sunday. July is normally the rainiest monsoon and August, the second rainiest. The expected spells of rainfall later during this week are unlikely to make much impression on the entrenched deficit in Uttar Pradesh or East India, according to Skymet.

Heavy to very heavy rain

As for Sunday, the IMD had warned heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy rainfall for various parts of Odisha and heavy to very heavy rain for Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana and heavy over Chhattisgarh and Rayalaseema. On Monday, it would be heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy rainfall over Telangana; heavy to very heavy over Odisha and Chhattisgarh; and heavy over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and the plains of West Bengal.

Heavy rain for MP, Gujarat

Tuesday will see the heavy to very heavy rainfall belt with extremely heavy falls migrate to Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana, while the rain will be heavy to very heavy over the plains of West Bengal, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha Marathwada, and Madhya Maharashtra; and heavy over Jharkhand and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. On Wednesday, heavy to very rainfall and extremely heavy falls are forecast for Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat; heavy to very heavy over Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra, Kutch, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and the plains of West Bengal; and heavy over Jharkhand, Marathawada, and Telangana.

Extended rain outlook

An extended outlook from Friday next to the eve of Independence Day (August 12-14) spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread to widespread light or moderate rainfall with heavy rainfall over Central India and adjoining East India, along the West Coast and over the Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. It will be scattered to fairly widespread to light or moderate over North-West, West, and the South Peninsula (except South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, and Tamil Nadu).