India’s kharif sowing has topped 1,100 lakh hectares (lh) as of September 22 with the area under rice, maize, soyabean and sugarcane helping in higher coverage.

However, concerns over yield and actual production remain with harvest a couple of weeks away. The Centre’s fight against inflation will depend on how it tackles the drop in the acreage of pulses, key nutri-cereal jowar and oilseeds such as groundnut.

Woes pile up

Besides, it may have to contend with lower sugar and cotton production. Sugar production will likely be affected due to a prolonged dry period in Maharashtra and Karnataka in August. Cotton production is likely to lower due to a fall in its acreage.

The lower storage levels in reservoirs in southern and eastern parts add to the problems, though global models have forecast good rains during September-December. This will likely help the rabi crops. 

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall area under kharif crops is 1,103 lh compared with 1,099.23 lh in the same period a year ago. 

Gains have mainly come from paddy, whose acreage has increased to 411.52 lh from 400.72 lh a year ago. Though the area is higher than the normal and last year’s coverage, there are spots of worry, particularly due to lower acreage in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

Major inflation worry

In Telangana, which has emerged as a key rice producer recently, the acreage is up by 6,000 hectares only. The surprises in rice sowing are Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where the acreage has increased.

Pulses could turn out to be a major inflation worry as the acreage under all the varieties have declined. As a result, their coverage is down by nearly 4.5 per cent to 122.57 lh. While Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have brought higher area under these crops, the coverage is lower in key states of Karnataka,  Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, besides Uttar Pradesh.

Though the area under nutri-cereals is up, the decline in jowar coverage is worrisome. The rise in these coarse cereals, termed “Shri Anna” by the Centre, is mainly due to higher acreage in maize, ragi and, to some extent, small millets. 

Slippery oilseeds

According to the Ministry, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh are the key to the higher area, while Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Telangana and Maharashtra are the laggards.

Despite the area under soyabean topping 125 lh, the overall coverage of oilseeds is lower with a fall in the acreage of groundnut, sunflower, sesamum and niger. Castor coverage has increased, though. 

Oilseeds area is higher in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Telangana but lower in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. 

Sugarcane coverage has increased, thanks to mills paying farmers on time and good prices over the last couple of seasons. However, the problem this year could be the yield. 

In particular, Maharashtra’s sugar production could drop below 10 million tonnes for the first time in three seasons due to lower cane yield. Sugarcane crushing may be affected in Karnataka too. 

Indifferent monsoon

Cotton coverage has slipped mainly since prices last season did not meet the growers expectations. They even held back their produce but global slowdown and recession have affected their returns, forcing them to switch to other crops. 

The coverage is lower in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, which were looking to increase the area under the natural fibre. The acreage in Gujarat, the top producer, has increased by 1.33 lh. 

On Friday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the south-west monsoon is set to withdraw over the next few weeks. This year, the monsoon has been a little indifferent. It set in late in June, while July witnessed above normal rainfall. The monsoon was 32 per cent in August, while the deficiency has been pruned to 6 per cent so far this month. 

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