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India’s kharif paddy arrivals have declined to an 18-year low during October 1-20 as the crop has been affected by weather and lower productivity in key growing regions of Haryana and Punjab.
However, experts say there need not be any cause for alarm though production might be a little lower than the Ministry of Agriculture’s estimates. Currently, this is helping prices to rule above the minimum support price (MSP) of ₹2,040 a quintal this year.
Complicating the situation is the effort of officials to meet the kharif paddy procurement target of 518 lakh tonnes (lt). This has led to some traders buying paddy at around ₹1,600 a quintal from farmers in Uttar Pradesh villages and selling them in Haryana at the MSP of ₹2,040.
The unscrupulous practice of the traders has forced the Haryana government to ban entry of paddy into Karnal district from other districts and States on Friday.
According to data available on Agmarknet, a unit of the Ministry of Agriculture, 39.20 lt of paddy arrived in various agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards across the country during October 1-20. This is the lowest since 2004 when the arrivals were 34.71 lt.
Punjab arrivals at a 21-year low
This is mainly since paddy inflow to APMC yards in Punjab has plunged to a 21-year low of 11.28 lt. In 2001, the arrivals were a meagre 98,675 tonnes. Arrivals in Haryana are higher than last year, a major reason why the Haryana government banned the entry of paddy from other districts in Karnal as it was worried that the procurement target given to the State would get over in no time.
“Paddy harvest has been delayed by at least two weeks due to rains in Punjab and Haryana. Arrivals will now take place after a fortnight. In addition, the per hectare yield is low,” said S Chandrasekaran.
“Sowing was a little late this year as monsoon was delayed. Untimely rains in Punjab and Haryana have resulted in the hollow growth of grains. This may result in slightly lower production and should not be a cause for concern,” said Vinod Kaul, Executive Director, All-India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA).
Virus attack
According to Bhagwan Das, Young Farmers Association of Punjab, the paddy yield is lower this year. “A virus attack on the crop has also affected the yield,” he said.
However, Chandrasekaran and Kaul said the lower yield due to the viral attack was confined to a limited area only. Punjab and Haryana account for over 85 per cent of total arrivals of paddy during the kharif marketing season beginning October 1.
Going by Agmarket portal data, arrivals in Punjab are almost 50 per cent lower than last year. Higher arrivals in the State have always resulted in a consequential rise in all-India arrivals.
For example, the record arrivals of 90.38 lt arrivals of paddy in 2010 were due to inflow in Punjab APMC mandis topping 60 lt. Similarly in 2001, the inflow was a meagre 1.05 lt resulting in arrivals across the country being just 3.07 lt.
Clear picture
“A clear picture of rice production this kharif will be available only after two weeks,” Chandrasekaran said.
Due to the lower arrivals, the weighted average price of paddy currently is ₹2,073 a quintal, higher than the MSP. In Haryana, the weighted average price is ₹2,106 and ₹2,060 in Punjab. A month ago, the price was ₹1,912.
Data from the Consumer Affairs Ministry show the retail price of rice is ₹38.24 a kg currently, up over seven per cent from a year ago. But it is lower than ₹38.41 a week ago.
According to the first advance estimate put out by the Ministry of Agriculture, kharif rice production this year is projected to be 104.99 million tonnes (mt) against 111.76 mt last year.
Many parts of the country are experiencing rains now as the southwest monsoon has not withdrawn fully. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the southwest monsoon, which sets in officially on June 1 and ends on September 30, will withdraw over the next couple of days.
Centre’s initiatives
This year, the monsoon has yielded over six per cent excess rainfall but the precipitation has not been distributed evenly with eastern and northeastern parts being deficient. This led to kharif paddy sowing declining by 5.5 per cent from last year.
Fearing a shortage of rice availability, the Centre curbed exports of rice from September 9 by banning shipments of fully broken rice and imposing a 20 per cent duty on non-basmati white rice consignments.
In October, the country received 73 per cent excess rainfall with Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Rajasthan receiving rainfall manifold times higher than normal. This has now impacted the arrival of kharif crops that are ready for harvest.
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