The low-pressure area over the the central parts of South Bay of Bengal has intensified into being ‘well-marked’ at a slower pace than expected. India Meteorological Department (IMD) now expects the system to strengthen another round to a depression during the next 24 hours. It has maintained a track towards the Tamil Nadu-Puducherry-South Andhra Pradesh coasts during the subsequent three days. This too hints at a lag in the movement and evolution of the system as originally envisioned.
Lack of confidence
Such reviews during system evolution usually represents lesser confidence or lack of model clarity. Global models had aired suspicions about the prospects of its transformation, even suggesting that it may weaken a short distance away from the Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast on approach. Numerical model predictions of the IMD too hint that it may weaken off the coast, and nearly stall there for sometime. The slightly lesser warm waters here may be a disincentive, global models aver.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction sees it spending itself out mostly over the seawaters rather than over the Tamil Nadu coast during this week. This more or less mirrors prospects as indicated by the IMD. In fact, the latter now goes on to suggest a successor from the South China Sea and landing up over South-East Bay by November 24 with its attendant ‘drag’ effect on the current well-marked ‘low.’
Successor system likely
In its rainfall forecast, the IMD said light to moderate rainfall may spread out over most places over North Coastal Tamil Nadu-Puducherry-Karaikal today and tomorrow with heavy falls at isolated places. As for Monday and Tuesday, it will be light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls while being isolated heavy over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Rayalaseema.
On Wednesday, light to moderate rainfall over North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh at a few places with heavy falls at isolated places. An extended forecast for three days from Thursday said scattered to fairly widespread activity is likely over the South Peninsula with isolated heavy rainfall over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands as the successor system makes its way in from the South China Sea.
Meanwhile, the IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the South-West and adjoining areas of South-East and West-Central Bay of Bengal and along and off the Sri Lanka coast today; the South-West and West-Central Bay and along and off the Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Sri Lanka coasts on Sunday and Monday; the Gulf of Mannar on Monday and Tuesday; and the South-West and West-Central Bay and along and off Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu on Wednesday.