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The prevailing low-pressure area located over the northern parts of East Madhya Pradesh this (Wednesday) morning, the last of the monsoon season, would move west-northwestwards towards Central India and adjoining North-West India, spreading rain along the way.
The outlook for Wednesday has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls over Assam, Meghalaya and East Uttar Pradesh; heavy to very heavy rainfall over West Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, indicating a pronounced easterly bias with the rain bands.
Heavy rainfall may break out on Wednesday also over Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry indicating the potential of the low to trigger rain elsewhere in the country too.
Low to be pushed back to East
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that moist winds blowing into it from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal would trigger fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan, Goa and West Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday.
A similar outlook is valid for East Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday and over Bihar from Wednesday to Friday as the low-pressure area is pushed back to the East by the building anticyclone over North-West India, which is prompting the monsoon to withdraw from there.
The anticyclone has clockwise winds blowing around it, and unlike in a low-pressure area, it heralds a regime of higher ambient pressure as the winds cause the air to sit over the ground increasing pressure (as against ascending motion of air and lower pressure in a cyclonic circulation).
Seasonal anticyclone to the fore
Thus, the anticyclone will blow away any chance of rain-bearing clouds forming in the region under its footprint (under which falls Rajasthan and neighbourhood concurrently, and slowly extending it to the rest of North and Central India in phases), builds heat and dry air before giving way to dry autumn and winter.
Meanwhile, isolated extremely heavy rainfall is forecast over East Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday as the prevailing low presides over the regional weather. The monsoon trough continues to be reasonably active, supporting the rainfall regime over East India and along the West Coast even during the fag end of the season.
Rains to last until month-end
Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is forecast for the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya on Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is forecast over Assam and Meghalaya today (Wednesday), the IMD said.
An extended outlook for September 28-30 said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over North-East and adjoining East India. Scattered rainfall may fall over Peninsular and adjoining Central India and along the West Coast.
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