A low-pressure area formed over the North-West Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Bengal on Friday, and a follow-up ‘low’ is forecast to shape up over the same area five days later on August 1.

Under their influence, the monsoon is expected to stay active over Central and adjoining South Peninsular India, Rajasthan and Gujarat during the next five days.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service has hinted at the possibility of a third ‘low’ forming off the Odisha coast, a little South to where its predecessors formed, between August 8 and 12.

Above-normal rain

While the first two systems may translate into above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country during the week July 25 to 31, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, South Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep could be exceptions.

An extended range forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated below-normal rainfall for the week on account of the ‘low’ being located ‘too far away to the North-East.’

The week that follows (August 1 to 7) may see the monsoon strengthen further over the central parts of the country, bringing cumulatively above normal rain for most parts of the country.

It would still leave out Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep where the rainfall could end up below normal for a second week.

Hope for South?

The APEC Climate Centre based in Busan, South Korea, has reiterated in its latest forecast that the South Peninsula would see normal rain in August, which is normally the second rainiest of the four monsoon months.

Meanwhile, the IMD, in an update on Friday, said that rainfall has increased over Central India, the Northern Plains as well as the adjoining western Himalayan region since Thursday.

The forecast for the next three days says that fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls may lash Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, the ghats of Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Gujarat and Rajasthan. Isolated extremely heavy falls were forecast over East Rajasthan on Friday; over Gujarat on Sunday and Monday; and over Saurashtra & Kutch on Monday and Tuesday.

Rains for Bengal

An extended range forecast said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab into the weekend (until Sunday).

However, over Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, it is likely to continue throughout the week (until Wednesday next). Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is likely to occur over Gujarat on Sunday and Monday and over East Rajasthan on Sunday.

The presence of the ‘low’ would translate into fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over the plains of Bengal, Odisha and Chhattisgarh until Wednesday next.

Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is likely along the West Coast until Wednesday. Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely to occur over the rest of the country most days of the week.