The heating of land around central India is expected to continue at least for another week with expanding base covering parts of northwest India and fringes of the southern peninsula.

Global models also find instances of intense heating episodes (around 35 deg Celsius) over east and south Rajasthan and central Madhya Pradesh during this period.

HEATING CORE

The core of the heating would be centred round a high-pressure (ridge) protruding from West Asia and across north Arabian Sea into Gujarat.

A “ridge” formation sees subsidence of air and therefore higher pressure and resultant heating. This makes for stable atmosphere and clear/cloudless skies.

This is unlike a low-pressure area, which witnesses rising motion of air, lowered pressure and cooling. The rising motion of air destabilises weather, causes condensation and formation of clouds, leading to rain/s/fog/snow.

Meanwhile, likely arrival of a western disturbance around March 18/19 is expected to limit the heating to west and central parts briefly, according to a forecast.

RABI WHEAT

This would mean the Rabi wheat areas would stay mostly cool and within tolerance limits (around 30 deg Celsius) for most part of the crucial month of March.

According to latest US National Centre for Environmental Prediction, mean temperature over the planting area in northwest India may not exceed the upper limit at least until March 25.

An outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR, or terrestrial radiation escaping the surface) tracker said that OLR values would stay negative over most parts of India from March 17 till the very end.

Negative OLR values means presence of clouds (preventing radiation from escaping into the atmosphere) and an insurance against unbridled day-time warming of the surface.

MERCURY TRENDS

But, on the flip side, night-time temperatures would stay elevated thanks to the radiation getting trapped in this manner.

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