The withdrawal of the South-West monsoon is unlikely to get going for another fortnight with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating the possibility that the low-pressure area forming in the Bay of Bengal on Sunday will be followed by another a week later.

A majority of the global models indicate chances of formation of a low-pressure area over West-Central Bay of Bengal off the Andhra Pradesh coast during the first half of next week and a follow-up system again over the West-Central Bay, not far from the where the predecessor is born, during the middle of the following week.

Rain over Peninsular India

The two successive systems proceeding in from the Bay overland would build up a wall of rain over the South Peninsula, Central India, West India and even right into the fortress of the seasonal anticyclone that would normally repel any rain front approaching the Rajasthan area from where the withdrawal begins.

Winds turn clockwise round an anticyclone (the alter ego of a low-pressure areas where the wind direction is anti-clockwise with upward motion of air that generates cloud and rain), where the air sinks towards ground increasing pressure, promotes dryness and does not allow clouds to form.

Dry spell

The IMD also said that continuous dry spell would be the high light over North-West Rajasthan over the next two weeks (rains are far and between already there). Elsewhere, North-East India and South Peninsular India will continue to experience above normal rainfall activity during this period.

West-Central India is likely to get above normal rainfall while East-Central India may get deficient rainfall during September 18-24. The first low-pressure system off the Andhra Pradesh coast moving across Telangana and Vidarbha will bring excess rainfall with heavy to very heavy fall over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala from September 14 to 17.