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The APEC Climate Centre at Busan, South Korea, has predicted a scenario in which the wet cover over the South Peninsula from the North-East monsoon will progressively extend into West India and later to the entire country through the autumn and winter of 2022/23, before peaking into the spring and pre-summer of 2023 (January to April).
It bases its outlook on an overwhelming 84 per cent probability that the rain-friendly La Nina in the tropical Pacific will continue into January 2023, though decreasing to 24 per cent by February-April.
The South Korean agency released its latest seasonal weather forecast for the two remaining months of 2022 and the first four of 2023 on Monday.
Temperatures to behave
It also sees an enhanced probability of India being spared from above-normal temperatures during this season (November to April 2023). But above-normal temperatures will be the most likely outcome for Eurasia, southern parts of the US, Mexico, and Argentina.
The La Nina is expected to give way for ‘neutral’ conditions during the next pre-monsoon season (April to May 2023) and early monsoon 2023 (June to September).
As per the South Korean agency, November will see the South Peninsula as well as the coast of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha receive excess rainfall while it would be above normal for Central India and adjoining East India. North-West India is likely to remain dry as it slips into typical autumnal weather.
In December, the wet weather will extend from South Peninsula into West India (Gujarat and Rajasthan) while it will be dry over North-West and East India as well as parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh.
NE monsoon spillover
In January, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are likely to receive excess rainfall as the North-East monsoon spills over into the New Year while it would be above normal for Karnataka, Goa, Rayalaseema, South Gujarat and Rajasthan and dry over the rest of North-West India, entire East and North-East India, and East-Central India (Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Odisha).
The scenario changes for the better in February with a rain cover establishing over the entire western half of the country and dry climes being confined to Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and northern parts of Andhra Pradesh.
In March, as the winter draws to a close, most of the country is forecast to receive above-normal rain except in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.
As the country enters the pre-monsoon season in April, forecasts suggest an across-the-board enhancement in precipitation across the country with excess showers likely for the North-East, usual during the season, and also in Kerala in the extreme South.
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