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Extended forecast by India Meteorological Department (IMD) into the year-end and the first week of the New Year (January 2022) indicates the arrival of back-to-back western disturbances which will trigger rain, thunder showers and snow as well as keep away cold wave conditions.
BusinessLine had already reported quoting the APEC Climate Centre at Busan, South Korea, that India s likely to witness normal to above normal rainfall during not just the winter but also the early summer and pre-monsoon season.
Clouding, moisture
IMD’s outlook for the period from December 30-January 5, 2022, suggested that successive western disturbances will sustain normal to above normal rainfall over North-West, Central, East and North-East India. It is likely to be below normal over South Peninsular India.
Arrival of western disturbances have brought in associated clouding and moisture that has caused minimum (night) temperatures to look up. On Thursday, the lowest minimum temperature of 4 degrees Celsius was reported at Meerut and Kanpur over the plains of the country.
Rise in mercury levels
A gradual rise in minimum temperatures by 2-4 degrees Celsius is likely over most parts of North-West, East and Central India during the next two days and no significant change thereafter. Overall, these may rise above normal by 2-4 degrees Celsius over most parts of North-West and Central India.
No cold wave conditions are likely to prevail except over Odisha during the next seven days. Dense fog is likely in the morning hours over parts of in isolated Punjab, Haryana and North-East India on Friday and Saturday and over North-West Rajasthan on Saturday and Sunday.
First system already in
Minimum temperatures into the first week of January will trend to be above normal by 2-4 degrees Celsius over most parts North-West, Central, East and North-East India and near normal over the South Peninsula.
Projections for the ongoing week ending December 29 said that the first such system western has already arrived over North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir.
Induces spin-off circulation
Being an ‘active’ (stronger than normal) system, it has spun off an induced circulation over North-West Rajasthan. A successor system has been traced to over Iran and Afghanistan.
The IMD has forecast for scatted rainfall/snowfall over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh until Saturday. Isolated rainfall is likely over Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh.
Intense system expected
A fresh intense (most active) western disturbance and its induced cyclonic circulation are forecast to influence North-West India from Sunday and Central India from Monday.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/snowfall is likely over the hills of North-West India from Sunday to Tuesday on and isolated to scatted on Wednesday. Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu & Kashmir on Sunday and Monday and Himachal Pradesh on Monday.
Rain for plains of North-West
Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh while it will be isolated over Rajasthan on Sunday and Monday. A similar forecast is valid over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Bihar and Jharkhand from Monday to Wednesday.
Also read: Cold wave conditions to abate in North as western disturbances troop in
Isolated hailstorms may break out over the Jammu division, lower Himachal Pradesh, North Punjab and Haryana on Sunday and over Uttarakhand and North-West Uttar Pradesh on Sunday and Monday.
Light isolated rainfall/snowfall is likely over the plains of West Bengal, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh and light rainfall over rest parts of the North-Eastern States during the first half of the week. Light rainfall is also likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during the second half.
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