The eight core industries’ growth continued to show buoyancy with the latest July 2023 print coming in at 8 per cent.  This is substantially higher than the 4.8 per cent growth recorded in July last year.

All the eight core industries’ — coal, natural gas, crude oil, refinery products, fertilizers, cement, steel and electricity — recorded positive growth in July 2023. The eight core industries comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).

The latest growth print of 8 per cent was however lower than the five month high of 8.2 per cent growth recorded in June 2023. In May 2023, the core industries growth had come in at 5 per cent. 

Meanwhile, the Commerce and Industry Ministry has revised upwards the final growth rate of April 2023 to 4.6 per cent from its provisional level of 3.5 per cent.

For April-July 2023, the core industries output grew 6.4 per cent (provisional) as compared to 11.5 per cent in same period last year.

In fiscal 2022-23, core industries output grew 7.6 per cent, lower than 10.4 per cent growth in the previous fiscal.

COAL SECTOR SHINES

The growth in coal sector output at 14.9 per cent was the best among the eight industries, higher than 11.4 per cent growth in same month last fiscal. It was also higher than 11.7 per cent growth recorded in June 2023.

OTHER INDUSTRIES

For the month under review, Steel output saw robust growth of 13.5 per cent , higher than 7.5 per cent growth recorded in same month last year.

While crude oil output grew 2.1 per cent (-3.8 percent), natural gas output was up 8.9 per cent (-0.3 percent). In July 2023, refinery products output grew 3.6 per cent (6.2 per cent). Fertilizers output grew 3.3 percent (2.63 per cent) and cement output was up 7.1 per cent (0.7 per cent). Electricity generation grew 6.9 per cent (2.3 per cent).

EXPERT TAKE 

Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, said “Based on these numbers, the IIP growth rate would be in the range of 5-6 per cent for July 2023”. He highlighted that growth has been buoyant in 5 of the 8 sectors, while steady positive for the other three. 

Coal sector output performance gels with power generation which went up by 6.9 per cent, he said. This reflects both steady business activity as well as use of DG sets for agriculture especially in regions where rainfall was weak, Sabnavis added.

Steel (13.5 per cent) and cement (7.1 per cent) both registered good growth rates on the back of more infra activity with the government driving the demand as their capex was on course, he said.

The delayed monsoon in June did keep construction work on which generated some demand for cement in particular. Normally cement demand ebbs during monsoon, he pointed out.

Sunil K Sinha, Principal Economist and Paras Jasrai, Senior Analyst, Ind-Ra said that overall, the recovery in the infrastructure industries appears to be ticking off on a pervasive note that bodes well for the private sector capex cycle which Ind-Ra believes is at the cusp of a pickup. Going forward, the agency expects the core sector output to record a growth of over 7 per cent y-o-y in August 2023 on the back of favourable signs from high-frequency indicators (such as power generation, etc) and sustained capex front-loading by the central government.”

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