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The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) rose to 113.2 for the week ending February 6, from 104.8 in the prior week (13.2 percentage points above the pre-pandemic levels). This is a 11.5 percentage points recovery in the NIBRI from the nadir, which saw an 18 pp fall following the onset of the third wave.
“Mobility has recently turned a corner. Google workplace and retail & recreation mobility rose by 9 pp and 6.7 pp, respectively, from the prior week, while the Apple driving index rose by 13.3 pp. The labour participation rate rose to 40.5 per cent from 39.3 per cent, while power demand rose by 13.3 per cent w-o-w from 0.3 per cent in the prior week,” Nomura said in its weekly report.
‘8.7% GDP growth’
“The improvement is indicative of the ebbing third wave and the lower public risk perception, with daily new cases down to 1,38,000 from over 3,00,000 at the end of January, although the death rate has doubled over the fortnight. State governments have announced a gradual relaxation of their restrictions.,” it added.
Other ultra-high frequency data, too, seem to have inflected. Daily railway passenger revenues are almost back to pre-third wave levels, while freight revenues continue to climb. January GST e-way bills have also been healthy, and the drop in domestic flight departures has bottomed. “This is in line with our view that the third wave impact will be limited to January – we expect FY22 GDP growth of 8.7 per cent y-o-y,” Nomura said.
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