Economy

In just 8 years, India will overtake China as world’s most populous country: UN report

Our Bureau New Delhi | Updated on June 17, 2019 Published on June 17, 2019

Migration has become a major component of population change in some countries   -  AP

Global population likely to touch 9.7 billion in 2050

Around 2027, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country, says the latest report released by United Nations.

The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights, which is published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, provides a comprehensive overview of global demographic patterns and prospects.

The new population projections indicate that nine countries — India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the US — will account for more than half of the projected growth in global population between now and 2050, with India registering the most increase, and the US, the least.

“Growing at a slower pace, world population is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 11 billion around 2100,” the report says.

China shrinking

While India is moving towards becoming the most populous country, many countries, including China, are experiencing a population contraction. According to the report, since 2010, 27 countries or areas have experienced a reduction of one per cent or more in the size of their populations. This drop is caused by sustained low levels of fertility. Between 2019 and 2050, populations are projected to decrease by one per cent or more in 55 countries or areas, of which 26 may see a reduction of at least 10 per cent. In China, for example, the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050. The report also observes that migration has become a major component of population change in some countries. Between 2010 and 2020, 14 countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while 10 countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude.

“Some of the largest migratory outflows are driven by the demand for migrant workers (Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines) or by violence, insecurity and armed conflict (Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela). Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Russian Federation, Serbia and Ukraine will experience a net inflow of migrants over the decade, helping to offset population losses caused by an excess of deaths over births,” it says.

Published on June 17, 2019
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