For aviation, Covid could be the next 9/11

Once the lockdown is lifted, your flying experience will take on a new avatar.

It’s as yet unclear when flights will resume and what the new social distancing norms will be, but the pandemic will radically shake up aviation, just like 9/11 and the security challenges it ushered in did nearly two decades ago.

The check-in changes

You will notice the changes the moment you reach the airport. In fact, it could set in even earlier. While booking tickets, the airline may ask you to furnish a medical certificate to establish you are not displaying corona symptoms. Some international airlines were insisting on a medical certificate at the time of check-in even before the lockdown.

There is every likelihood that more flyers will opt for web check-ins. However, you may still need to approach the counter if you have check-in baggage, unless a newly evolved technology takes care of that, too.

At the airport, not only will the social distancing norms be more stringent, but the scrutiny of documents is also likely to be more rigorous. Social distancing — 1 metre is likely to the norm — will, in fact, be followed at all points of interface, between flyers and with airport and airline personnel.

Fewer passengers

However, passengers may not be required to report earlier than before. According to Lewis Burroughs, Head, Aviation, India ICF, passengers wouldn’t have to arrive materially earlier than the usual guidelines (one to three hours), as the number of passengers to handle is certain to come down initially once the lockdown is lifted.

Some airlines are clear that they will start operations below capacity. Vistara, for example, estimates that it will restart operations at 30-40 per cent of its capacity and will look at gradually increasing flights as the situation unfolds.

Burroughs said airlines will ramp up slowly to fill their aircraft as best as they can at the highest price the market can bear. It may take a while before they get the pricing right.

When operations restart, there could be a spike in demand as those stuck in other cities would want to get back home, said Vinod Kannan Chief Commercial Officer, Vistara. However, he was quick to point out that how demand picks up after that will depend on a number of factors including what the Centre and States allow.

Goa, for instance, has declared that tourism will not be allowed at least till December, which is going to hit airline operations to the State.

Pre-boarding

Security at airports is bound to get tougher than before, especially in the crowded ones. There is little clarity on what passengers who have checked in and cleared security will do till they board the flight. Most metro airports have huge shopping and eating areas. The new social distancing norms will likely make the shopping/browsing/snacking experience a constrained one.

Arvind Singh, Chairman, Airports Authority of India (AAI), said the Authority is examining the procedures being followed in China and Japan (which have reopened for flying) and the US, where flying was not fully stopped.

Once the government decides on when flying should resume AAI will finalise a standard operating procedure, Singh said. The guidelines will have to be carefully drawn as they will have to look at social distancing norms at various points at the airport including entry point, check-in and security counters and the terminal security hold area.

The biggest change, however, is going to be onboard the aircraft. Airlines will have to open the gates sooner than they do now to ensure social distancing. You cannot afford to reach late and still expect to board your flight, as boarding will now be a long-drawn out process. You may be required to wear protective gear while boarding and flying.

Seating arrangements

The jury is still out on how the airlines will maintain social distancing on flight. Two options are considered most likely. The first is keeping the middle seat free. The other is to keep two of the three seats in each row vacant on a narrow body aircraft like an Airbus 320 or a Boeing 737. Some airlines are resisting this move as they need to fill in at least 80 per cent of the seats to make a profit.

“One passenger in a row of three will mean 60 passengers on a 180-seater and two passengers in a row of three will mean 120 on a 180-seater. A seat load factor of 33-66 per cent is not going to make you money unless you increase the fares by the average number of seats you’re leaving vacant,” said the head of an international airline.

Rising prices

The new norms could spell a bonanza for economy class flyers – all the added space will make their cabin seem like business class! But this will come at a price. According to some estimates, flyers may have to shell out as much as 30-40 per cent more for their flights.

Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, Director, Practice Leader, Transport Infrastructure Advisory, Crisil, said fares will go up two or two-and-a-half times. Hence, a one-way Delhi-Chennai fare could go up to as much as ₹12,000 to ₹15,000 if the two-seats-per-row formula is followed. This, if the airlines are keen to recover costs. Some might choose to keep the fares lower, but this will translate into a loss.

There is a rather pessimistic school of thought that airlines may well prefer to keep their aircraft grounded than incur huge losses by flying them at one-third or two-third capacity.

Cold meals

What flyers on full-service airlines will also have to get used to is being fed snacks instead of the hot meals they were served earlier. Vistara, for one, is considering replacing hot

meals with sandwiches and other ‘boxed’ food to minimise contact between crew and customers.

India ICF’s Burroughs takes the long-term view when he says, “Restrictions on load factors will eventually ease and social distancing will fade from our day-to-day lives. However, there is a real possibility that the (aviation) industry will start looking at healthcare far more seriously.

“In the same way security and passenger experience changed post 9/11, there will be a post Covid-19 world which will look markedly different from before.”

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