Deutsche Bank says investor pessimism overdone; sees Sensex at 22,500

PTI Mumbai | Updated on March 25, 2013 Published on March 25, 2013

Observing that investor pessimism in the country might be “overdone”, German brokerage Deutsche Bank today predicted that the BSE benchmark Sensex would close the year at 22,500 points.

“We believe investor pessimism on India may be overdone,” Deutsche Bank said in a note, giving the target of 22,500 for the Sensex, which closed at 54 points down today at 0.40 per cent at 18,681 points, the seventh successive loss.

It cited continued action and commitment from the government “despite fears of policy taking a backseat to politics” and gave examples of decisions like clearance given to five oil and gas exploration proposals entailing an investment of $9 billion, rationalising FII investments in debt etc. as reform measures.

“With legislative manoeuvrability constrained and political rhetoric expected to rise as we head closer to national elections, government policy action will likely shift towards executive decisions, which don’t need parliamentary approvals,” the report said.

The government will start spending again with the start of the new fiscal, while there will be a “big bang” of sorts as the government focuses on pending projects and the recent decision to delink permissions for environment and forest would also be helpful.

The note also said despite recent adverse political developments it will not derail the economic reforms process.

“Given the persisting economic headwinds, policymakers simply have no choice at this juncture, (but to go ahead with reforms) irrespective of political dynamics,” the note said.

The note, prepared within days of the ruling UPA’s second biggest constituent DMK pulling out its support, also said there was not much of a possibility of mid-term polls.

It said plans on disinvestment, diesel price liberalisation and foreign direct investment in retail will move ahead.

On the macroeconomic front, it said the weak economic fundamentals will not deteriorate further from here on a variety of factors like expectations of a good rabi harvest and other confidence boosting moves such as a likely clearance to stuck infrastructure projects.

According to a government estimate, the GDP growth for the current fiscal is likely to fall to a decade low of 5 per cent. Experts attribute the deceleration to a variety of factors, both domestic and global.

Published on March 25, 2013
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