Nifty 50 October Futures (11,185): Buy above 11,200 with strict stop loss below 11,150

The Indian benchmarks are marginally up despite bearish cues across the globe. The US market declined by over 1 per cent and the Nikkei is trading 0.65 per cent lower. The Hang Seng too has dropped by .6 per cent today. However, the Nifty and the Sensex seem to be showing some resilience. But whether the rally will be sustainable needs to be seen.

Looking at Advance – Decline ratio of the Nifty 50 index, which is at 32-18, one can safely assume that the market seems to have a bullish bias. There is not much change in the volatility index – India VIX, which is at 17.95 levels, up by 0.75 per cent in today’s session. Among sectoral indices, the Nifty private bank index and the Nifty financial services index are top performers gaining by 1.4 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively. The biggest loser is the Nifty IT index which has lost 1.2 per cent today.

The October expiry futures contract of the Nifty 50 index which is in a short-term bear trend is attempting to post some recovery. Currently trading at 11,185, the futures contract is up by a marginal 0.2 per cent. But since there is a strong resistance at 11,200 levels, the recovery could see fresh selling at that level. Hence, from the perspective of trading, one can wait until there’s a confirmation on the upside--price breaking above 11,200. In such a scenario, traders can initiate longs in dips with stop loss below 11,150. More importantly, maintain a strict stop loss as a break below 11,150 could intensify a sell-off.

Strategy: Buy above 11,200 with strict stop loss below 11,150

Supports: 11,150 and 11,100

Resistances: 11,200 and 11,260